Strong Ukrainian army on our border will defend us from the invasion of the hungry Russians in a few years - Sergiy Zgurets

On April 19, both President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov announced that Russia had launched an offensive in the Donbas, which had been talked about for a long time.

 

Espreso.West talked to Sergiy Zgurts, a military expert, director of the Defense Express information and consulting company, author of scientific publications, reference books and books on the defense industry, about what the battle for Donbas might look like and what to expect after it.  complex of Ukraine, trends in the world arms market, development and production of military equipment.

 

End of the first phase of the war

 

We can say that these days the Russian-Ukrainian war is moving into its next phase, says Sergiy Zgurets.

 

We conditionally consider the first phase to be the reflection of the blitzkrieg and the retreat of the Russians from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, the liberation of our territory under the blows of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as a change in the further tactics of the Russian Federation.

 

Now the second phase of the war has begun. It lies in the fact that the invader is trying militarily to achieve the political goals declared earlier. We are talking about Russia's control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and control over the southern land corridor from Crimea to the territory of the Russian Federation. For this, this so-called second battle for the Donbas was planned.

 

The first phase of the war, says Zgurets, the Russians failed for several reasons. In particular, because of the low level of cooperation between different groups. In addition, the Russian army was unable to take advantage of its numbers, which, combined with logistical shortcomings, became to some extent the weak side of the aggressors.

 

"The column near Kyiv, which was talked about a lot (stretching for more than 60 kilometers), is a vivid example of Russian problems. The equipment could not move off the road, being afraid of getting stuck. But it actually got stuck on the roads, because in such a column the equipment could not maneuver or even refuel normally", says the expert.

And whether the main reason for the failures was the underestimation of the strength of the invader, both the Armed Forces and the Ukrainian people. People, instead of meeting the Russians with bread and salt, began to resist, or at least show a cool attitude towards the invaders.  Even the computer simulations used by the Americans predicted a Russian victory within 72 hours.

 

The battle for Donbas: what it will be like

 

"The current tactics of the Russians involve the accumulation of forces in order to ensure an attempt to encircle our troops in the JFO zone through two directions. The first is from Izyum to the rear of our troops, the second is from Mariupol and to the north. These two axes just underlie this  current Tactics of the Russian Federation.

 

Directly in the Izyum direction, they accumulated 22 battalion tactical groups (although in fact they are formed somewhat differently). According to our estimates, this is about 18 thousand personnel, about 450 tanks, 600 armored combat vehicles, and so on. Another 14,000 are concentrated in the Donetsk-Luhansk direction".

 

Among the negative aspects, Zgurets notes the fact that now the Russians will obviously not allow logistical failures, as in the first weeks of the offensive.

 

"There are indicators that cannot but worry us. This, in particular, is a high saturation of artillery of various capacities, as well as the so-called short arm for the supply of ammunition, fuel and food by the Russian troops. It is really very short and in fact allows the use of such stocks without restrictions , because all these things can be directly delivered from abroad with the Russian Federation. Earlier, in the Battle of Chernigov and near Kyiv, the delivery shoulder exceeded 100 km. Such a distance is on the verge of logistics requirements.

 

This creates certain threats for us, because in this situation Russia will use the usual Soviet tactics: relying on the power of artillery of various calibers as the first element of an offensive operation, then aviation, and then a direct offensive.  In parallel with this, high-precision missiles will strike throughout the territory of Ukraine. I do not rule out that at some combat phase of the offensive, strikes will be intensified directly against Kyiv and other centers of political, cultural and emotional significance for Ukrainians.  That is, the offensive will be combined with the massive use of missile weapons", the expert predicts.

 

At the same time, Sergiy Zgurets notes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been preparing for a long time to repel this offensive.  In addition, the forces and intentions of the invader are well known to the Ukrainian military command.  Therefore, instead of allowing themselves to be surrounded, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with a successful maneuver, can ensure that it is precisely the troops of the aggressors who are surrounded.

 

What will happen after the Battle for Donbas?

 

"An important component today is that we must protect our soldiers and officers. We do not have as many people as in the Russian Federation, and we cannot risk their lives without an excessive reason. Therefore, we need a reasonable defense, which involves the surrender of territories, launching the invader on it, and then, with the correct planning of the strike site, forces and means, simply destroy it and liberate these territories", Zgurets explains.

 

He says: the forces that the Russians have concentrated in the East will in no way provide Russia with that multiple excess that guarantees the successful conduct of an offensive operation.

 

"There is neither an excess of 1 to 5, nor 1:3. And given the low morale of the Russian army, I’m not at all sure that these offensive operations can be successful. Moreover, we expect that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to plan  this operation in such a way that, through flexible active defense and through the maneuvering of forces and assets on large sectors of the front, we will be able to make a significant impression on the strength of the invader. An intermediate element in the fighting to liberate Ukraine from the invaders.

 

What are we going to do next? Let's move on to the third phase, which will provide for the formation of a different strategy related to the liberation of the territory occupied by the invaders. This requires other requirements for the technology of the weapons used. But I think we will find ways to do it effectively.

 

For example, I am a supporter of the fact that today in the Battle for Donbass we do not set a super task - with one maneuver and repel attacks, and ensure the maximum displacement of the invader from all territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson).  These measures are correct, but we must clearly calculate whether we have enough forces and means for this. I hope that the General Staff clearly understands the balance between our capabilities, the capabilities of the invader and the optimal strategy - how much we can send forces to such an operation", Zgurets stressed.

 

What weapons do Ukrainians need?

 

The Ukrainian military will have to carry out the battle for Donbas with the weapons that we have at the moment, Sergiy Zgurets notes. He says: artillery will play an important role here (on both sides).

 

"We have significant open territories there, and this relegates to the background the use of the same anti-tank systems, short-range anti-tank weapons. First, we can disrupt the invader’s offensive with artillery, and then we can use short-range anti-tank systems.

 

If we are talking about foreign weapons, then today we are sorely lacking means of destruction at a distance of more than 100 kilometers. Today, our maximum distance is 100-120 kilometers (we are talking directly about the Tochka operational-tactical complex).

 

We asked the Americans and other countries to receive missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers, relatively speaking. We need a timely delivery of such weapons, which are available, in particular, to the United States at storage bases. These are not the most modern samples, but these are the samples that the Americans have. Because many modern models simply do not exist in the format that would allow them to be received tomorrow, they must be manufactured (especially for air defense systems). When we talk about missile strike systems like "ATACMS", which can destroy targets up to 300 kilometers in different versions, the Americans now have them. And if they were deployed very quickly, then to a large extent they could change the situation on the battlefield, providing us with the ability to destroy invader airfields with helicopters and planes, and destroy invader columns on distant approaches. And then what had already broken through the shaft of high-precision weapons and our artillery would have already been destroyed by short-range anti-tank systems", explains Zgurets.

 

Both the President of Ukraine and the Minister of Defense asked for these weapons from their partners. Even if these requests are heard, the expert says, these weapons will be received after the Battle of Donbass, at the next phase of the war - the phase of the liberation of the territory of Ukraine.

 

But about the unification of various weapons received from different countries, Zgurets advises not to worry. A variety of weapons is not a problem today.

 

"We will return to unification when we win the war, and then we will simply get rid of excess weapons. We are not hostages of what they gave us. We are hostages of the fact that we need right now as many samples that meet our needs", said the expert.

 

A strong army is needed even after the collapse of Russia

 

Serhiy Zgurets is not ready to speak about the security formulas, the creation of which Ukraine and Russia are discussing. He says that all the same, not a single legal mechanism and no agreement on limiting weapons is currently in force.

 

"Now I’m thinking in shorter categories. They consist of carrying out an operation to liberate Donbass. Then, the accumulation of forces to liberate the territory from Russian invaders (completely including Crimea). And after that, the conclusion of some kind of legal procedures that will prevent such  threats to Ukraine in the future The surest way after the expulsion of the Russian aggressor will be to build a formula for a state that will live in conditions of readiness to repel the attack of the invader in a permanent format.

 

This should be done, unless, of course, under pressure from the United States and the European community, we achieve the disintegration of the Russian Federation as a country and achieve a complete minimization of the threat from the Russian Federation. And this, I believe, is the main task of the world community. And not building any limited formula that will save Ukraine from the threat of the Russian Federation".

 

To achieve the economic collapse of Russia thanks to sanctions, Zgurets is convinced it is possible in a few years. It is only necessary that they be extended to the economic component of Russia's activities due to the limitation of sales, primarily of energy resources.

 

"The question of default is in the near future. Then they must not be given the opportunity to receive any external financial injection for hydrocarbons. And I think it will take from 3 to 5 years until the Russian Federation economy collapses.

 

And then we still need strong boundaries.  Because the orcs will flee here again, but from their own poverty. And so that they do not move beyond our borders, the army, as an element of the country's defense, will again be required. Although already in another dimension," Sergiy Zgurets summed up.