Сonflict risk is rising in Russian society

This is described in an article by Ksenia Kirillova, published by Euromaidan Press with reference to the Jamestown Foundation.

The article’s author recalls a conversation of Iosif Prigozhin, who shares his last name with the infamous Yevgeny Prigozhin and is a successful music producer who is a Kremlin supporter. In late March 2023, Ukraine’s Intelligence made an audio recording of his conversation with a former Russian Senator Farkhad Akhmedov public.

Both interlocutors can be heard 30-minute moaning about the fact that President Vladimir Putin deprived their children and the entire country of a future by starting a stupid conflict in Ukraine. They say that nothing good happened during this war and the people of Prigozhin and Kadyrov will soon punish their rivals with complete impunity.

Iosif Prigozhin referred to the recording as "fake," but the majority of analysts are inclined to accept its validity and aren't surprised by the opinions spoken during the discussion. According to Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov, society in Russia is only not yet falling apart because the Kremlin has provided an "outlet" for the nation's displeasure in the form of an "imperialist" war.

Former political prisoner and former CEO of the Russian oil business Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, also thinks that in the future, conflict might develop between those who are "self-made" without Vladimir Putin's assistance and others who can only keep riches under the existing government. Thus, a civil conflict will eventually arise between those who benefit from the war in Ukraine on all fronts and those who are in loss as a result of hostilities and the economic "pivot to the East."

The oppositionist also believes that disputes between Moscow and the provinces can escalate as the federal center loses strength.

The article says that it has been emphasized that as a result of the Russians' active participation in the conflict with Ukraine, both the general populace and governmental officials, including local and regional elites, are becoming more and more of its benefactors. Currently, the majority of Russia favors these factions, but this may change since the state's financial assistance to some groups will be followed by severe losses for others.

At this point, it appears that the Putin dictatorship primarily finances war, placing it above all other needs. Russian military experts are open about the high expenditures associated with military operations, and so it should come as no surprise that the government can only afford it by cutting money for other budget items. Such an imbalance is initially felt most strongly by business owners, but with time, "ordinary" Russians also start to notice it more and more.

The Russian budget for the current year and the following two anticipates a 16.7% decrease in healthcare allocations. These cuts will have an immediate impact on the oncological diseases and children's healthcare sections. Additionally, a reduction is being made to the budgetary funds designated for environmental projects and social support.

Meanwhile, all areas of Russian industry, even those that are essential for the populace, have already suffered as a result of Western sanctions. Even the pro-government media had to acknowledge the failure of import substitution after a year of the conflict.

In addition to having less resources, Russians also have to deal with a resource allocation that is becoming more unequal. Some sociologists believe that people related to the "special military operation" will demand more and more resources, while local budgets are limited and their relatives and friends believe that they deserve priority attention from local and regional authorities.

Conflicts with Russian authorities and the "deprived" sector of society that is unrelated to the war will certainly result from such behavior. The conflict between the military and environmentalists that arose over the placing of air defense systems in several green protected areas of Moscow is quite illustrative in this respect. Residents worry that having military equipment so close to their houses poses a direct danger to their safety.

Statistics indicate that denunciation is now the main form of conflict resolution in Russia. Verstka, an opposition journal, discovered that among the reasons for "appealing to the authorities" were talking about Ukraine, listening to Ukrainian music, and using yellow and blue symbols. The historical experience of Russia demonstrates that denunciations, which first started "for ideological reasons," quickly evolved into a means for personal purposes. Historians note that in Stalin's time, one of the most popular reasons was to "free up living space" and make living conditions better.

Accordingly, Russian citizens won't be able to escape economic conflicts, which have very high stakes in an environment of political persecution, regardless of how they feel about the war.