Russia’s Victory Day frenzy is a parade of total failures - Serhiy Zgurets

Moscow parade and Victory Day frenzy in the aggressor country

The Russian parade cannot be described as a powerful display. Usually, up to 200 equipment samples were shown at the parades, but this time, only 50 were displayed, of which 10 vehicles were taken from Kadyrov's forces. There was only one T-34 tank, and there were no other tanks since they are either on the front line or destroyed. The air parade with Russian warplanes was canceled because they are also being destroyed, and there are fewer and fewer of them. In any case, it was hardly a demonstration of military power; rather, it turned out to be a demonstration of Russian failures that we observe both on the front line and in the defense industry of the Russian Federation.

The parade was short in time and content. Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, noted that the parade in Moscow lasted only 40 minutes, becoming the shortest parade – because Putin was in a hurry to hide in his bunker.

Vasyl Pavlov, a military historian and head of the expert group on internal communications of the Directorate of Information Policy in the field of defense and strategic communications of the Ministry of Defense, noted that the T-34 tank was the only decoration of the parade. Pavlov explained that this is the last modification of the tank from World War II, which could not be produced without the availability of machine tools for the turret element. The historian said there are rumors that this tank is from the batch that was supplied by Russia to Laos three years ago and then returned back. This tank is an interesting exhibit and an illustration of the current Russian military and technical policy.

Also, according to Pavlov, the absence of “special military operation” in Putin's speech may be due to the fact that the people who compose Russian narratives and write his speeches could not find the necessary parallels and could not support them with events at the front. During these two difficult days for Ukraine, Russia was still unable to achieve anything significant. The Russians couldn’t take Bakhmut, which was so long-awaited. Therefore, Russia does not fit into the "victorious” narrative because there are no victories.

Pavlov noted that Russia has nothing to attract theoretical allies because parades have always been an illustration of export opportunities. Now nothing of the equipment is shown, and from open sources, we know about the number of failed military contracts. We can assume that the Russian military-industrial complex can do nothing except to show a picture with Shoigu.

The historian believes that the concept that the so-called special military operation is a "new Great Patriotic War" is currently collapsing. He emphasized that many Soviet narratives from the concept of the Great Patriotic War do not work now and, in fact, have been destroyed. Pavlov believes that Russia can invent a replacement for the old narratives. However, in his opinion, they will not work.

He emphasized that Russia simply desecrated the memory of people who really went through and won that war. Pavlov said that Russia and the Soviet Union simply changed the meanings that originally existed in this holiday.

The United States has announced a new aid package

The military aid package provided by the United States to Ukraine is valued at $1.2 billion. While significant and important, it should be noted that the funds will be used to purchase weapons from American manufacturers. The items selected for purchase will eventually be integrated into Ukraine's Armed Forces.

The package includes support for five key areas to reinforce the Ukrainian Armed Forces: air defense systems, munitions and missiles, equipment for Western missile launchers and radars, ammunition to counter unmanned systems, 155 mm artillery shells and commercial satellite imagery services.

Two noteworthy components of the package include the HAWK systems and anti-drone systems. HAWK systems have been promised to Ukraine for a long time, and while they have a range of up to 40 km, they have been decommissioned and in storage for some time. Extensive efforts are being made to restore these systems and their missile and radar stations, but it remains to be seen how quickly they can be deployed. HAWK has the potential to be effective against Iranian drones.

The second important component of the package is the anti-drone system, which includes Raytheon's Coyote Block 2 missile technology. This system is designed to destroy enemy drones and, if deployed in Ukraine, would represent a significant advancement in the country's short-range air defense capabilities.

New missiles from Great Britain

According to a publication in the British Arms Procurement Fund, Britain is considering the option of supplying Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. This development has been discussed in several media publications, and progress is being made. The Storm Shadow has a range of up to 300 km in the export version, and its warhead weight is 450 kg, making it even more effective than the ATCMS systems that have been discussed before.

The Storm Shadow missile has a higher level of accuracy and is capable of destroying multiple targets, but it is designed to be launched from aircraft. Therefore, our fighters or bombers may need to be modified to use these missiles. Possible aircraft for this task are the Su-27 or Su-24 fighters.

This decision is necessary as it will allow Ukraine to destroy enemy airfields with a range of up to 200-300 km, from where Russian planes take off to attack Ukraine’s facilities.

It is worth noting that a final decision on the supply of these missiles has not been made. However, leaked information from the Pentagon suggests that Britain is ready to deliver these missiles to Ukraine as soon as possible.

Operation of Ukrainian radio-electronic security systems

Officer of the artillery intelligence unit, Oleh Berestovy, explained that the primary objective of the electronic warfare equipment is to safeguard Ukrainian artillery from hostile drones. Ukrainian electronic warfare systems are designed to counteract the signals of enemy drones, thus impeding the enemy's combat missions or even causing the landing of Russian drones.

Berestovy emphasized that the mentioned EW systems are of Ukrainian origin, as these systems are not developed in the West, unlike their Russian counterparts. Since the USSR, Russia has had a powerful school of radio-electronic warfare, and he believes that the Russian EW are the strongest in the world, precisely because of Soviet innovations. Although Ukraine receives minimal EW systems from the West, its allies provide radio-electronic intelligence, which helps detect drones more effectively.

The officer also mentioned that, despite the Russian Federation's frequent use of Lancet drones, Ukraine can counter them by jamming the navigation of these UAVs. He explained that these drones work in conjunction with ZALA UAVs, which guide Lancets, enabling them to remain undetected. Ukrainian soldiers can jam the satellites, which prevent the drone from completing its targeting, causing the Lancets to miss.

However, Berestovy highlighted that the Russians are adapting these drones. He spoke about a recent development where the Lancet camera features an AI algorithm, allowing it to analyze the target on video and adjust its direction to hit it precisely. He noted that, currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not come up with a way to counter this, but the officer believes that Ukrainian soldiers will develop means to combat it once this technology becomes more widespread.

Finally, he mentioned that an entire cluster is dedicated to technological development, and he believes that creating defense systems to protect against hostile drones should be a priority to develop Ukrainian solutions to combat enemy UAVs.