Russia's “shadow fleet” expands along with concern among allies

A study by S&P Global Commodities at Sea & Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite identified 889 tankers, each with a deadweight exceeding 27,000 tonnes, involved in transporting sanctioned oil. These vessels have a combined deadweight of 111.6 million tonnes, accounting for approximately 17% of the global oil tanker fleet. Over 80% of the oil exported by Russian companies via sea is transported using these shadow fleet vessels, bypassing sanctions.

At the same time, sanctions have been imposed on less than a hundred tankers.

The coalition of countries continues to make attempts to combat the shadow fleet. The Greek Navy decided to extend maneuvers in the Laconian Gulf for another four months. The exercises were originally due to end on 15 November, but now they will last until mid-March, for a total of more than ten months since their start.

The region has gained status as one of the alternative routes used to avoid EU sanctions against Russia. In May, Greece announced the start of exercises in the area and imposed a ban on commercial vessels.

But the problem is that while on the one hand, EU countries are trying to fight the "shadow fleet," they are transshipping significant volumes of Russian oil under sanctions. Thus, a quarter of the shadow fleet vessels are registered under the flags of EU countries. This allows the ships to appear independent of Russia, making it difficult for regulators to trace the cargo and link it to Russian oil sources. In addition, Russia uses the tactic of constantly changing the ships' flags to make control more difficult.

In a resolution adopted on November 14, 2024, the European Parliament called for stronger measures against these vessels in future EU sanctions packages, covering not only the vessels themselves, but also their owners, operators, managers, as well as accounts, banks and insurance companies.

The Parliament also calls for "systematic sanctions" against vessels sailing in EU waters without proper insurance and insists on strengthening the EU's monitoring capabilities, including through the use of drones and satellite technology, as well as targeted inspections at sea.

Members of the European Parliament propose that EU countries should identify ports that can handle sanctioned vessels transporting crude oil and liquefied natural gas, and seize illegal cargo without compensation.

This week is likely to see tough discussions within the International Maritime Organization. Two weeks ago, the meeting of the governing bodies of the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds was dominated by the growing number of unsafe and uninsured vessels transporting oil.

The Funds' governing bodies called on member states, many of which are the same representatives meeting this week at the International Maritime Organization, to redouble their efforts to address the problem.

Currently, the size of the "shadow fleet" and the share of oil that Russians manage to sell in order to circumvent sanctions is growing. Concerns about this fact are also growing.

Source

About the author. Andrian Prokip, energy analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the blog authors.