Military expert assesses Russian assaults on Ukraine’s rear in October

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko has analyzed Russia's month-long terror campaign in a joint project by OBOZ.UA and Information Resistance.

Missile strikes

Throughout October, Russian forces carried out single strikes almost every day across Ukraine, primarily using Kh-59/69 and 9M723/728 Iskander-M/K missiles, as well as Kh-31P, Kh-38, Kh-22, and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles.

The types and numbers of missiles used:

• Kh-59/69: 38 missiles, with 13 shot down
• 9M723/728 Iskander-M/K / KN-23: 22 missiles
• Kh-47M2 Kinzhal: 3 launched, 2 hit
• Kh-22: 2 missiles
• Kh-38: 3 missiles
• Kh-31P: 6 missiles
• Unknown type: 8 missiles

During the past month, Russia launched 84 missiles of various types, nearly half as many as in September (151). Of these, 15 were intercepted, compared to 48 in September.

This low interception rate is due to the fact that the strikes were aimed at locations with weak air defense coverage, or they involved missiles (like the 9M723) that the available air defense systems simply couldn't intercept.

There were no recorded launches of the 9M728 Iskander-K missile in October, while Russia regularly used the 9M723 Iskander-M/KN-23. Compared to September, the launches of these ballistic missiles showed a decrease in numbers. A similar trend was observed with air-launched Kh-101/555 cruise missiles and sea-launched Kalibr missiles. However, this does not mean that Russian forces have run out of these missiles; rather, it suggests that they are stockpiling them.

Throughout October, missile strikes primarily targeted the Odesa region (14 strikes), the Dnipropetrovsk region (6), the Sumy region (5), and the Donetsk region (5).

Drone attacks: Shahed, Gerbera

In October 2024, the Russian army set a new record for drone attacks deep into Ukraine, launching a total of 2,023 drones. Other monitoring sources reported slightly fewer at 1,734, but it’s still a record high.

Out of these attacks, 79 drones were verified as having hit their targets, accounting for about 4% of the total.

Kovalenko noted that not all of these drones were Shahed-136. The attacks also included decoy drones like Gerbera and Parody, which are cheaper and designed to distract air defense systems. 

Determining how many of the strikes were specifically from Shahed-136 drones is also difficult due to the lack of an average benchmark. The military expert says that more decoy drones were used during these strikes than actual Shahed-136s.

Use of FPV drones

In October, Russian forces set a new record for the use of FPV drones, exceeding 13,000. The previous record was around 12,000 in September.

Additionally, there was a record daily usage of FPV drones, with over 740 launched at Ukraine in a single day, slightly more than in September.

Lancet loitering munition 

In October, the Lancet loitering munitions showed a record low intensity of use. On some days, the occupying army deployed fewer than five drones per day, similar to the situation in September.

Conclusions

Throughout the month, Russian forces continued their terror against Ukraine's rear by carrying out single missile strikes of specific types. This indicates an ongoing accumulation of missiles (such as Kh-101/555 and Kalibr missiles), likely in preparation for increased usage during the heating season. In October, the intensity of these missile strikes was lower than in September.

Additionally, Russia actively used Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones, which reached a record high in tandem with decoy drones. The use of more FPV drones by Russia remains a problem. This could be due to Russia having enough stockpiles of these drones for intense use or increasing supplies from countries that traditionally provided such products to Russia.

• In the past week, Russia launched over 900 bomb strikes, approximately 30 missile attacks, and nearly 500 Shahed drones against Ukraine. The majority of Russia’s assaults have targeted civilian areas and critical infrastructure.