Why giving up alternative NATO guarantees is strong move

Its essence lies in the fact that on the eve of possible major negotiations to end the war, Ukraine is preemptively rejecting any surrogate promises of security guarantees and recognizes only one condition—NATO membership.

Indeed, what could Ukraine gain from rejecting possible 2-3-4-5-party security guarantees? Of course, aside from the risk of getting nothing? Quite a lot, actually. This is a demonstration of self-respect and pride, self-sufficiency, and faith. Are such values irrelevant nowadays? Far from it, especially when this stance is not empty bravado but a deep desire to preserve oneself and the nation, transformed into action.

Yes, this move is quite risky. There is a prospect of being left alone with a cruel and treacherous enemy who, in its irrational ferocity, will stop at nothing to secure a victory over Ukraine. Even forming alliances and receiving military aid from North Korea and Iran—pariah states of the global civilizational system.

But if an arrogant and condescending Moscow has already resorted to military support from Pyongyang and Tehran, it is in dire straits. That does not prevent Russia from launching particularly ferocious attacks on Ukrainian lands in recent times. They seem to rage as if on the brink of destruction.

"Still, with this statement, Ukraine is not rejecting aid! Kyiv, having bitter experience with the Budapest Memorandum, is wisely and logically refusing meaningless guarantees, which are essentially no more than fig leaves covering the essentials."

Over the past year, President Zelenskyy has traveled extensively, persuading European (and not only) partners to conclude bilateral agreements that would serve as full-fledged security guarantees for Ukraine. He looked all European leaders in the eye, just as he once tried with Putin. Agreements were signed, but calling them guarantees of Ukraine's security would be an overstatement. These are guarantees of material, technical, humanitarian, and military aid. Which is already something, as it is not North Korea. It is the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy… Practically all countries of the European continent, except Hungary and Slovakia. 

But the trouble is that these European countries themselves need protection and defense. They rely on the United States for this. Over the last 30 years since the collapse of the USSR, they have completely relaxed and neglected their military-industrial complexes. So, while they might want to provide more substantial assistance, understanding the military monster Ukraine is up against, they don’t have much to offer. What little they had in old stockpiles has already been handed over. And now, while they strive to quickly restore their military factories, it takes time.

“Only the United States can provide substantial help. They have everything needed for this, except the desire to escalate relations with Moscow. They are also afraid of escalating the war and its spread to NATO countries, which could force them into a conflict that might quickly escalate into a nuclear war.”

Everyone understands well that there is a 99% chance Putin and his cronies wouldn’t take such a step. But there’s still that 1% that poses a direct threat to the flourishing West. And this fear is something they cannot overcome. No way!

But Ukraine is forced to overcome this fear. We have no choice but to fight to the end for our freedom and physical survival.

Especially since the situation is not yet catastrophic. Large weapon shipments from the U.S. are arriving now. Europe, especially Northern Europe, is doing its utmost to help with both equipment and finances. It seems that for the next year, we are provided for in terms of both weapons and money.

And there’s still the new U.S. president, who promised to stop the war between Ukraine and Russia on fair terms within 24 hours of the election results being announced, which he convincingly won.

However, the designated 24 hours after the official announcement of the results have long passed, and the war continues. Moreover, Trump hasn’t even begun taking any steps in this direction yet. And he remains silent for now. Perhaps this silence is for the best, as in this complex geopolitical game, there can be no quick solutions, no matter what he proclaimed during the election campaign. He oversimplified many things and made quite a few outright nonsensical statements.

For now, he’s staying silent, letting people gradually forget his previous slogans. Meanwhile, with a team of advisors, he might try to find a formula for peace. After all, he has already promised Zelenskyy a fair peace. But what "fairness" means in the words of a billionaire and a rather impulsive man—no one knows. At the very least, beginning his new term by handing Moscow a gift in the form of an independent and democratic Ukraine—which the U.S. not long ago guaranteed to protect—would be impossible for him.

Last time, he handed over Afghanistan, making a senseless deal with the Taliban, which later sank Joe Biden’s approval ratings. It’s unlikely he’d want to repeat that, destroying his own ratings at the start of his presidency. Besides, despite his lack of expertise in state affairs and geopolitics, Trump likely understands Ukraine’s significance.

“Appeasing Moscow by surrendering Ukraine would mean changing the entire world order. It would be a green light for all expansionists to redraw borders. It would result in chaos and a sea of blood. Authority and influence in international affairs would fully shift to authoritarian countries. Washington would cease to be the center of global development and decision-making, reducing its status from a global leader to a regional one. The world would stop paying attention to America and would no longer respect it.”

Is this what America’s isolationists want? I am sure this is not what the new U.S. president wants, whoever and whatever he may be. Therefore, by logical reasoning, given the massive military power that far exceeds Russia’s, Donald Trump has every reason to ensure Ukraine’s victory. That is, to affirm his own authority and that of his country. And he has all the tools to do so.

But if, for some reason, the new American president refuses to listen to our arguments and those of the world’s best analysts, it will push history into a completely new chapter. In the near future, several dozen well-developed countries might announce the creation of nuclear deterrence programs, as they see no real mechanisms to stop global expansionists. And everyone will understand them.

Since the question is about the physical survival of the country and the Ukrainian people, Ukraine, too, will seriously consider its own security program. If we do not receive proper protection and the realization of the guarantees of our sovereignty promised in the Budapest Memorandum by the U.S., the United Kingdom, and Russia, we will consider ourselves unbound by any obligations and free in our actions. Ukraine could find significant new opportunities here—with all the ensuing consequences.

Wouldn’t you agree?

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About the author. Viktor Moroz, Ukrainian publicist, columnist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.