We need to convince our allies that Russia's defeat is acceptable

How do wars end?

• A vision of victory and the post-war world order is created.
• A coalition of winners forms around this vision, adjusting it as needed.
• The coalition implements a victory strategy, allocating resources and making military, political, economic, and diplomatic decisions.
• After victory, this coalition forms the basis of the post-war international security system.

Currently, the war drags on because our Western partners fear both Russia's and Ukraine's defeat. This leads to a strategy of gradually reducing Russia's capabilities — a war of attrition where Ukraine bears the brunt.

Even if this strategy works, firstly, it's not guaranteed Ukraine will outlast or won't fall first; secondly, this strategy can be reversed; and thirdly, even with a clear win, Ukraine will be too drained to recover quickly.

We need to push our partners to defeat Russia and secure lasting peace, ensuring Russia never threatens Ukraine or others again. Besides enemies and allies, there are about 150 countries indifferent or with their own interests and reasons for not supporting Ukraine. We need their agreement or at least their non-objection.

International summits and parliamentary assemblies are key for making joint decisions. Think tank conclusions become political resolutions, which is no easy feat. These resolutions gradually lead to concrete actions on weapons, funds, sanctions, and other influences in the political, economic, and military spheres, shaping our victory.

Our partners' stance is evolving. Initially, no one believed we could hold out for more than a few weeks. The heroism of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the resilience of Ukrainian society convinced the Allies to start providing modest assistance. The efforts of Ukrainian politicians, diplomats, military, and activists gradually expanded the range and volume of aid. This is a gradual process, and those claiming our partners' position hasn't changed since 2022 are not being truthful. The variety of weapons increased incrementally, from Javelins to F-16s. The same goes for sanctions, money, tribunals, international statuses, and other victory tools. One must persevere for months and years to achieve their goal, as many people, including my friends, do.

You didn't like the Western "deep concern" messages, but that was just the beginning. After that came much more. Step by step, we're getting our way.

Saying angrily, "Why all these summits, conferences, assemblies, and forums, when we just need weapons, money, and sanctions" is like saying, "Why should I go to the bank? I don't need a bank; I need money."

Because the money is in the banks.

And the decisions are in the hands of parliaments, governments, and presidents.

And they must be obtained. They must be agreed.

We need to convince the allies that Russia's defeat is acceptable.

First, it's acceptable.

Then it's possible.

Probable.

Desired.

No alternative.

That's a long way.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Pekar, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy professor

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.