Trump and the war in Ukraine: Scenarios

Trump wants the war to end, but there’s no concrete plan to guarantee that outcome. Putin, meanwhile, is content with advancing his invasion of Ukraine, even as his domestic problems pile up. The future remains uncertain, but four potential scenarios stand out.

1. No negotiations

Trump might analyze the situation and decide against hosting a summit for ceasefire talks, judging the risks of failure too high.

He could conclude that it’s too soon to strike a deal with Russia, as Moscow keeps escalating its demands and essentially insists on Ukraine’s surrender.

From Trump’s perspective, breaking his campaign promise to end the war might be preferable to returning from failed negotiations empty-handed. Such a failure would deal a significant blow to his reputation as a dealmaker early in his presidency.

2. Putin gets his way

A potential deal might play directly into Putin’s hands — securing Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Kursk region, legitimizing Russian control over occupied territories, easing sanctions, and prompting some European states to pursue better relations with Russia.

Putin could approach the talks offering minor concessions in exchange for guarantees that Ukraine would be left militarily defenseless. This would likely cripple its economy, as foreign investments hinge on security stability. Simultaneously, Putin might push for constitutional changes in Ukraine, like he did with the Minsk agreements in 2014, to retain leverage over Ukraine’s government.

If Trump engages on this basis, he might lean towards Russia’s terms, pressuring Ukraine to agree by threatening to cut off support entirely.

3. Trump achieves partial success

In this scenario, Trump confronts Putin directly, aiming to prevent further Russian aggression and safeguard what remains of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Trump could deploy every available tool — arming Ukraine further, tightening sanctions, and isolating Russia diplomatically while targeting its allies like Iran, North Korea, and China.

He might propose a ceasefire deal that ensures Ukraine’s independence, including deploying Western troops (mainly European) under U.S. leadership.

In exchange, Trump might offer phased sanctions relief.

After intense negotiations, Putin could accept — partially fearing increased pressure and partially securing Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO. This way, Putin retains a chance of eventually dominating Ukraine entirely.

Ukraine, meanwhile, sacrifices some territory but gains long-term security for most of the country, creating a path to future economic success.

4. Failed negotiations

Trump and Putin might meet, only for talks to break down when neither is willing to budge. Such a failure could be softened by scheduling follow-up discussions.

In the meantime, the war would grind on. Trump could either scale back support for Ukraine, shifting responsibility to the EU, or maintain aid to create the impression that talks haven’t failed outright but are merely ongoing.

It’s hard to predict which scenario is most likely. Trump’s track record from his first term makes him unpredictable. Whether he understands that losing Ukraine threatens U.S. security interests, whether he believes Russia has the right to dominate its neighbors, or whether he’s truly focused on resolving the issue — it’s anyone’s guess. The answers will come soon enough.

Source

About the author. Boryslav Bereza, public figure, former People's Deputy of Ukraine

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.