How Russia’s ties with Iran shape war in Ukraine

CNN reported the information.

Just days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office, the signing of this agreement will refocus attention on a partnership that has significantly influenced the war in Ukraine and challenges the U.S.-led global order, the outlet highlights. This development comes as the incoming U.S. administration signals its intent to increase engagement with Russia.

The relationship between Russia and Iran is historically complex, marked by both conflict and cooperation. However, the war in Ukraine has drawn Moscow and Tehran closer together. “That idea of having the United States not just as an adversary but as a strategic objective of all of their foreign policy has brought them together,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s brought them together on the battlefields of Ukraine.”

In July 2022, just months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin visited Tehran in his first wartime trip beyond the former Soviet Union. At the time, Russia’s military campaign was faltering, with significant territorial losses, and the visit to Tehran proved pivotal.

Following that visit, Russia secured an agreement with Iran to produce thousands of Shahed drones, which have since become a critical component of Moscow’s war strategy. These drones, manufactured in Tatarstan, have been deployed in swarms, targeting Ukrainian civilian areas and energy infrastructure to weaken morale and drain air defenses.

In 2024 alone, Russia launched more than 11,000 Shahed drones at Ukraine, compared to just over 2,500 in 2023, according to a CNN tally based on Ukrainian air force reports. This dramatic increase in production and deployment underscores the deepening military ties between Russia and Iran.

Moscow has also reportedly acquired Iranian ballistic missiles, though evidence of their deployment has yet to emerge. Nevertheless, the potential for such weapons to be used has heightened concerns among Ukraine’s allies, prompting discussions about allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles against Russian military targets.

Two years after Putin's visit to Tehran, the dynamics of the Russia-Iran relationship have shifted. Russia has gained momentum in Ukraine, advancing on the eastern front and solidifying its hold on occupied territories with assistance from North Korean soldiers. Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration signals potential concessions, including recognition of Russia’s territorial claims and delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership.

The upcoming meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian is a significant opportunity for Russia to project itself as a global superpower. “They still consider themselves as the bigger partner here, and Iran as a regional partner,” said Jean-Loup Samaan, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

For Iran, the stakes are different. Facing threats from Israel, concerns over the collapse of its regional allies, and a potential revival of UN sanctions, the Pezeshkian administration is eager to finalize this treaty. “They are frightened by the Trump administration, they are frightened by Israel, they are frightened by the collapse of Assad, the collapse of Hezbollah,” said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia-Iran relations.

Russia, however, may exploit Iran’s vulnerabilities. “The Russians have a great nose for somebody in trouble,” said Alterman. “We can help them a little bit, but we can get them where we need them and extract more from them that we want.”

While Russia has localized Shahed production and reduced its reliance on Iranian involvement, its future demands remain uncertain. Despite its recent gains, Moscow faces heavy troop losses and could benefit from additional manpower. However, experts doubt Iran’s willingness to provide troops, unlike North Korea, which has reportedly sent 11,000 soldiers to support Russia in Ukraine.

“Iran is not willing to sacrifice their soldiers, even when fighting outside their borders,” said Smagin. Historical distrust between Russia and Iran further complicates the prospect of a mutual defense pact.

Alterman suggests that the treaty may also serve as a strategic message to the U.S. “I think this is partly intended as a message to the Trump administration that we each have options,” he said. “The Iranians are looking for tools they can use with the Americans, and there’s a sense that this gives them something to trade or talk about.”

Facing potential reimposition of sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran is eager to restart negotiations with the U.S. For Russia, aligning with a potentially nuclear-capable Iran signals a warning to the incoming U.S. administration, which it views as less committed to Ukraine.

“The Iranians certainly have some worrying capabilities, and the Russians have demonstrated a willingness to use worrying capabilities,” Alterman concluded.