Russia's strike on NATO could happen before US elections

1. Despite the ambiguity of the situation on the battlefield, the war with Ukraine will no longer bring Putin the result he originally intended. Even after capturing most of Ukraine's territory, the Russians will not be able to control it because of Ukrainian resistance, up to and including the partisan movement in the occupation. This means that Russia's exhausting war with Ukraine is being dragged out indefinitely, and this is definitely not acceptable to the Kremlin. In order to justify and remedy the situation, Moscow, with its inherent adventurism, can easily raise the stakes and expand the context of its confrontation with the West.

2. A "dosed" violation of the borders of one of the Baltic states or a landing on the Norwegian Svalbard/Spitsbergen archipelago (as Mykhailo Honchar periodically warns) could achieve this goal.

It should be understood that the Russians will attack NATO not to start a war with the Alliance, but to demonstrate its vulnerabilities.

Most likely, the Kremlin is counting on the fact that a point (minor) NATO attack will not trigger a collective response, but will cause debate within the bloc, with some advocating an immediate response and others calling for negotiations with Moscow. It is important to break the unity. The consequence would be a decrease in trust among NATO members, which is exactly what the Ruscists want. Against the backdrop of fierce debate and declining trust, you can engage in separate negotiations with the "weak links" among the members of the Alliance and start playing your own game with them. Orbán and Fico are a good springboard for launching such a diversion within NATO.

3. The Russian attack on NATO and the likely lack of a collective response could be a good backdrop for Trump's election campaign, which would use it either to criticize Biden for failing to protect and unite NATO members or to criticize the Alliance itself as an ineffective structure, which is in line with Trump's line since his first presidency.

4. Beijing may give Moscow the go-ahead for this probing of the Alliance.

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The above is only a possible scenario. It is quite possible that the above calculation is wrong and that NATO (or its northern core) will give a proper response to Russia. In this case, it will strengthen anti-Russian forces in the US and European elections, aid to Ukraine will be much greater, and the consequences for Russia will be catastrophic. China will not stand up for the Ruscists, but will even freeze and significantly soften not only its geopolitical plans but also its rhetoric. With its characteristic diplomacy, Beijing leaves itself room for such a maneuver.

Our task remains the same in any turn of events: to fight under any circumstances. Stopping the fight against Ruscists monsters will mean the destruction of each of us.

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About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.