Espreso. Global

Russian Shahed drones enter Belarusian airspace for reason - military expert

18 July, 2024 Thursday
19:00

Recently, Russian Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones, manufactured in Iran, have been entering Belarusian airspace. At first glance, this might not seem surprising

client/title.list_title

Oleksandr Kovalenko, Ukrainian military expert and observer of the Information Resistance group, has analyzed the recent activity of Russian Shahed-136 drones in Belarusian airspace.

According to him, the presence of Russian Shahed-136 drones in Belarusian airspace is not surprising, as Russia has been actively using Belarusian airspace for strikes on Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. However, starting from the second half of 2022, the frequency of these airspace activities in Belarus decreased significantly and was reduced to a minimum throughout 2023 and 2024.

"On the other hand, Russia's use of Belarusian airspace for planning and conducting raids on Ukrainian territory appears quite rational. Firstly, it allows shortening routes in several directions. Secondly, it provides a safer passage through Belarus, minimizing the risks of being targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses. Why Belarusian airspace wasn't utilized for this purpose earlier remains a question," military expert said.

He noted that we cannot unequivocally state that Russia has resumed using Belarusian airspace.

As reported by Oleksandr Kovalenko, the first Shahed-136 entered Belarusian airspace on July 11 near Loyev, bordering the Chernihiv region of Ukraine. Initially, it appeared the kamikaze drone was attempting to use Belarusian airspace as a shortcut. However, an Mi-24 helicopter and a Su-30SM fighter jet were deployed to intercept the drone.

On July 13, the incident repeated itself. The Shahed-136 entered Belarusian airspace near Loyev in the Gomel region and headed towards Vitebsk. That night, Belarusian Mi-24 helicopters and Su-30 fighter jets were also put on alert.

On July 16, a Shahed-136 entered Belarusian airspace near the village of Belaya Soroka and exited near Komarin. However, just 4 hours later, another Shahed-136 entered Belarus near Narowlya and headed towards Vitebsk. Belarusian Mi-24 helicopters and Su-30 fighter jets were deployed to intercept the drone. The kamikaze drone crashed and detonated near the village of Lyuban.

Ukrainian military expert mentions that these incidents are indeed quite unusual.

"On one hand, in two instances, it's clear that the Shahed-136 used Belarusian airspace to shorten its flight path securely. However, in the other two cases, the kamikaze drones were clearly not heading towards Ukraine at all. Despite this, Belarusian aviation was on high alert in all cases, suggesting no prior warning from the Russian side about the Shahed-136's flights," he stated.

The repeated course of two 'kamikaze' drones towards Vitebsk could be attributed to technical or programming malfunctions in the Shahed-136. However, it occurred twice in such a short period, suggesting a critical flaw in the drone's internal software.

"Or, I dare to assume, considering the reaction of the Belarusian Air Force, that the Shahed-136 drones were unexpected guests in Belarusian airspace. Therefore, not only aviation, but also other systems such as electronic warfare (EW), might have been activated against them. It is quite possible that inexperienced Belarusian EW operators inadvertently disrupted the Shahed-136's intended course, causing a program malfunction that redirected them northwards towards Vitebsk.

There could be several interpretations of what happened, but one thing is clear: while the initial incursions of Shahed-136 into Belarusian airspace may have been planned, their subsequent actions were clearly unforeseen. Surely, Russia did not intend to provoke Lukashenko by sending 'kamikaze' drones towards Vitebsk. Or did it?," Oleksandr Kovalenko concluded.




 
Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2025, Wednesday
15 January
13:59
Russia targets Ukraine with Kh-55SM missiles carrying nuclear warhead simulators
13:36
OPINION
China is exhausting Russia in Ukraine
13:18
Exclusive
Russia seeks to establish foothold, advance in Kupyansk direction - Khortytsia troop grouping
13:00
Russia launches over 40 missiles, 70 drones at Ukraine: Zelenskyy on massive attack
12:42
Exclusive
North Korea will refuse to acknowledge captured soldiers - human rights advocate
12:24
Exclusive
Russian forces take control of most apartment buildings in Ukraine's Toretsk
12:07
Ukraine must be part of any decision about its future - EU top diplomat
11:50
Review
Russia in flames: Ukrainian forces launch largest strike on Russian territory. Serhiy Zgurets' column
11:28
OPINION
Guarantees of Ukraine's disintegration: key takeaways from Lavrov's press conference
11:09
EU shipyards repair Russian Arctic gas tankers despite sanctions - media
10:51
Ukraine reports 170 clashes at front, repels 70 Russian attacks in Pokrovsk sector
10:30
Exclusive
Conscription age in Ukraine may be lowered if partners boost military aid - MP Kniazhytskyi
10:12
Drones target distillery near military training ground in Russia's Tambov region
09:54
Russia's massive missile attack targets critical infrastructure in western Ukraine
09:35
Russia loses 1,580 soldiers, nearly 400 pieces of equipment in one day of war in Ukraine
2025, Tuesday
14 January
21:40
Exclusive
Trump to nullify International Criminal Court warrant by meeting with Putin - expert
21:25
Zelenskyy releases video showing interrogation of captured North Korean soldier
21:10
South Korea ready to take DPRK soldiers captured by Ukraine
20:52
OPINION
Biden took the “safe route”
20:30
NATO starts Baltic Sentry mission, Tusk announces increased presence
20:07
46% of Ukrainians prioritize NATO membership over EU accession – KIIS survey
19:46
Exclusive
“Breaking new ground”: Defense Express on Ukraine’s largest strike on Russian military targets
19:25
Updated
Ukrainian Air Force technicians report mass transfers to infantry; General Staff responds
19:06
Volker expects “decisive approach” in Trump’s Ukraine policy
18:45
Depletion of Russian air defense exposes rear regions to strikes
18:24
Ukrainian exports entered 16 new markets in 2024
17:59
Slovak opposition to call no-confidence vote against Fico government over shift to Russia
17:38
Russia’s military aviation: What happens to 1,100 aircraft not in combat over Ukraine?
17:13
Ukraine may cease to exist in 2025, negotiations should be with U.S., says Putin's aide. Ukraine responds
16:52
Military exercises in Gomel District, Belarus, pose no threat to Ukraine – SBGS
16:34
Ukraine sets up 36 working groups to prepare for EU membership negotiations
16:14
Russian "court" sentences seven Ukrainian POWs involved in Kursk operation
16:03
Updated
Ukraine launches massive strike on Russian military targets, up to 1,100 km deep
15:57
Russian agents exploit families of Ukrainian POWs for sabotage
15:37
Exclusive
'Trump is unpredictable but farsighted': VOA's Myroslava Gongadze on Greenland controversy
15:16
Russian oil tankers stalled as U.S. sanctions bite
14:52
Ukraine's largest long-range strike to date hits key Russian military and industrial sites
14:38
Ukraine exports almost $25 billion worth of goods to EU in 2024
14:17
OPINION
Mobilization of 18-year-olds: the West's excuses for its own failures
13:50
Exclusive
From Bryansk to Kazan: Ukraine targets Russian defense industry with precision strikes
More news