Russia to face weapons shortage, increase dependence on foreign partners - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared its report.

According to ISW, the Russian military is relying heavily on the restoration of Soviet-era weapons and military equipment, especially armored vehicles, to maintain the pace of its offensive operations in Ukraine.

Analysts suggest that the Russian government may have to further mobilize the economy and defense industry and invest in capacity building if the military intends to maintain the current pace of operations in the medium to long term. 

According to them, Russia is exhausting its limited Soviet stockpile, but it is unclear whether the Russian defense industry will be able to produce enough to withstand the high level of equipment losses suffered by troops in Ukraine, even with further economic mobilization.

ISW has previously assessed that Russia's efforts to expand its defense industry are unlikely to be sustainable in the medium to long term due to expected labor shortages and the impact of Western sanctions.

“North Korean support has previously enabled Russia to maintain significant artillery advantages over Ukraine, and Russia has used these advantages to support consistent offensive operations designed to prevent Ukrainian forces from being able to contest the initiative,” the Institute noted.

According to experts, Russia's deepening military partnership with North Korea is symbolic of the relations that Russia seeks to build with Iran, China, and other desirable partners.

“Russia will likely face dwindling weapons and equipment stockpiles and struggle to offset these shortages unless it can circumvent Western sanctions at scale and significantly expand its engagements with foreign partners to obtain sufficient military materiel, component parts, and dual-use items,” ISW emphasized.

• On September 14, former Russian Defense Minister and current Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu met with Kim Jong-un during a visit to the DPRK.