Putin wants to recreate modern Cuban Missile Crisis

It's clear that some form of negotiations will happen. 

"The real question is whether Russia will budge even a step from its publicly stated starting position."

If it does, Putin will find it very hard to sell any agreement to the Russian people; he’s like Yanukovych, a “bulldozer without reverse gear” - that’s his cultural persona.

If Russia doesn’t shift, Trump will face significant difficulty selling any agreement to Europeans (okay, he might tolerate that because "fuck the EU"), but also to the British and a large portion of Americans. Great America cannot display its greatness simply by dancing to the Kremlin’s tune.

Moreover, Putin’s primary scenario isn’t a deal about Ukraine (any deal), but rather a "Cuban Missile Crisis redux"; the only question is whether he will choose the “Ukrainian issue” to drive the situation towards this long-prepared climax.

The practical conclusion is straightforward: there is a vast distance between the start of negotiations and the “end of the war,” or even the cessation of active hostilities. This is what we need to prepare for.

Source

About the author. Oleksii Panych, philosopher, member of the Ukrainian Centre of the International PEN Club, blogger.

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