Putin bets on war of attrition

When Pu declares his willingness to negotiate while also setting ultimatums, it could indicate either:

• a genuinely strong negotiating position;
• a bluff intended to make his position appear stronger than it actually is.

If it is the first option, Putin is prepared to negotiate, but strictly on his terms. Despite these terms being unacceptable to the opposing side, he believes he can achieve these objectives through military means. Negotiations, in this case, are a way to mitigate the high costs associated with these demands.

If it is the second option, he does it with the goal of getting a more favorable negotiation offer. Demand as much as possible to meet in the middle. In this case, he needs the negotiations as much as we do, but he won't show it, because it will weaken his negotiating position and discredit him among his own people.

Although we don't have enough official data to understand the level of Pu's interest in the talks, we need to understand the following.

By starting a war with Ukraine, Pu has put himself in a trap where his very future will depend on the outcome of the war. And it is precisely this fear for his life that makes him raise the stakes.

Initially, after the failure of the blitzkrieg, he bet on a war of attrition. And then, due to the West's indecision and Ukraine's own weakness, he saw that he could turn defeat into victory. Now that he sees his strategy of attrition yielding results, he will stick with it as long as it works.

And here it should be noted that the war is draining Ukraine more than Russia. This is because the Russian economy has adapted to the war better than the Ukrainian economy over the past two years. And every time someone thinks that the Russian economy can hold out only for a few years, don't forget that ours is even worse.

This means that Pu’s strategy of attrition will work as long as Ukraine has the current idiotic economic policy, which will weaken us and give Putin a signal to continue this war.

Therefore, all these nuances must also be taken into account. Instead of convincing ourselves that Putin is interested in negotiations, it is better to work towards strengthening our own negotiating positions.

* Published with the author's style preserved

Source

About the author: Pavlo Vernivskyi, economist, expert at the Oleksandr Pol Institute.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.