Preparing for potential Russian attack in summer 2024

Defense Express writes about it.

Lieutenant General Pavlyuk, Commander of the Ground Forces, recently indicated that the Russian Federation is assembling an offensive group of 100,000 troops for a summer attack. While this seems anticipated given recent Putin's reelection, there are uncertainties surrounding Russia's resources, objectives, and potential outcomes.

Western military expert, retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, suggests that Russia might intensify its hostilities against Ukraine in 2024, capitalizing on delays in US military aid and European defense readiness.

However, Ryan emphasizes that intentions alone do not guarantee success. Russia may face challenges such as dwindling stocks of weaponry and the uncertainty of ammunition supplies from sources like North Korea and Iran.

Operational capabilities also pose obstacles, as Russia struggles to maintain operational surprise amidst modern intelligence capabilities. Furthermore, any successful offensive would require neutralizing Ukraine's air defense system, a feat not easily achieved.

To be effective, Russia might need to overhaul its offensive doctrine, integrating infantry, armored vehicles, drones, and electronic warfare devices. Yet, these changes could expose vulnerabilities that Ukraine's Defense Forces could exploit.

In summary, while a Russian offensive in the summer of 2024 is speculated, its success remains uncertain, with potential hurdles in resources, strategy, and Ukrainian defense capabilities.