On negotiations and impossibility of new Yalta

1. The key task of Ukraine is to preserve a state with maximum territory and access to the sea.

2. The collapse of Russia was not considered by any party as part of the scenario. And our illusions about this are our illusions. Without external assistance, the collapse of Russia by the hands of Ukraine is impossible. 

“3. The basic task of negotiations and further actions is the subjectivity of Ukraine as a state. The outcome of the negotiations is not so much about territories as it is about subjectivity in the future. Without this, territories are meaningless.”

4. The key issue is red lines. For Ukraine (as I have already written), it is to prevent a neutral status, to prevent a sharp reduction in the maximum number of Ukrainian Armed Forces, to prevent a ban on a number of military-industrial sectors, and to obtain guarantees for the supply of certain types of weapons. For Russia (although we have little influence here), it is to prevent a large-scale lifting of sanctions. 

5. Putin started out believing that a short war in Ukraine would allow him to become the third pole of the world, provide him with unlimited police powers in the post-Soviet space, and stop deslavization. 

None of these desires will be realized. There will be no Yalta. Russia will remain an economically weak country that will be forced to cede some of its oil and gas profits to the United States and the Gulf monarchies. And China will agree to this in exchange for not imposing duties on its goods.

6. Russia will lose European markets and will not have access to new technologies. No matter what Putin says now, no one needs to technologically pump up Russia, which can start (want to start) a war in the relatively short term. 

7. Neither the United States nor China needs a new war from Russia.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.