Will Ukraine face gas shortage amid Russian strikes, falling temperatures?

The situation is changing now, and weather forecasts predict a drop in temperature below -10°C for a prolonged period.  

Last week, emergency power outages became common on the left bank. Additionally, power restriction schedules for industrial consumers were introduced. A large-scale return of outage schedules cannot be ruled out, though they will not be the same across all regions.  

I’ll reiterate that the situation on the left bank is significantly more challenging due to a severe shortage of generating capacity in this region.

"The main transmission networks were simply not designed to deliver the necessary volumes of electricity from the right bank, where three nuclear power plants and the import interface are located, to the left bank."

It’s important to address potential criticisms like, 'Why haven’t new power lines been built after all this time?'  

First and foremost, because this is not a quick process. Secondly, just a year ago, the situation with available capacity on the left bank looked completely different, and even at -10°C, outage schedules were not implemented in the region.  

Additionally, the need for repairs and the construction of new capacity became more urgent than ever following the enemy’s campaign of massive missile strikes.

Therefore, even without new attacks or damage, the power supply situation may worsen. However, cold weather increases the risk that attacks could become more frequent.  

The situation is further complicated by the fact that not only the unified energy system but also the gas infrastructure is now a target of attacks.

"Since the beginning of the year, Russia has focused its strikes on storage facilities and later on gas production sites. It appears that Naftogaz resorted to importing natural gas precisely because of these attacks."

Gas reserves in storage are indeed low, but everything is relative. Based on the arithmetic of normal daily production volumes (considering that Ukrgazvydobuvannya has achieved record production growth during the full-scale war) and the gas reserves in storage, supplies should have lasted until the end of March. However, campaigns like 'Turn it down,' as seen in 2017, would not have been ruled out.  

That arithmetic, however, is conditional, as it does not account for the risk of gas infrastructure destruction, production declines, or difficulties in extracting gas from storage. And these are precisely the types of attacks that have occurred in recent weeks. The previously mentioned news about the shelling of a gas production facility is not an isolated incident—Bloomberg, citing its sources, reported a significant drop in production following the attacks."

Of course, Naftogaz could have imported more gas in the summer. I don’t know exactly what guided the company’s decisions, but it is possible that throughout the year, Naftogaz refrained from importing gas due to concerns over attacks on underground gas storage facilities. These systematic attacks began in March–April of last year—before that, storage facilities had not been a consistent target.  

There are many questions that could be raised for Naftogaz, including its strategy for working with commercial gas consumers at the end of 2024 and its approach to stockpiling reserves. However, the key problem and the greatest threat today are the Russian's strikes on gas infrastructure, which have significantly impacted the gas balance.  

Over the past two years, we have largely adapted to attacks on the power grid. Now, the gas system is under attack as well. Next year, an estimated 2–3 billion cubic meters of gas would need to be imported, and if production facilities sustain damage, this need will increase substantially. At the moment, there are no conditions for cheap gas in the coming year.

Source

About the author: Andrian Prokip, energy analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

The editorial team does not necessarily share the opinions expressed by blog authors.