NATO's perspective: Ukraine is not Germany

This is being actively promoted by former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who says that this is theoretically possible. I believe that this is a continuation of the policy of “spin” aimed at silencing the topic of enabling Ukraine to fight here and now with weapons provided by foreign partners.

They are trying to hang a carrot in front of Ukraine like a donkey, which it would run after.

Why do I think that Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO until it reaches the borders of 1991?

Let's imagine, purely theoretically, that if Ukraine agrees to the NATO membership scheme “in parts,” what does this mean? It means that a new border should be drawn on the territory of Ukraine so that NATO countries can understand where security begins and where it ends. Relatively speaking, for the fifth article to work.

And now guess who Ukraine has to coordinate this border with? That's right, with Russia. Will it agree to Ukraine's accession to NATO? Probably never. So there will never be a demarcation.

Even if we imagine that this issue will somehow be resolved, that some documents on border demarcation will be signed, we cannot rule out that the document will be signed in the evening, and in the morning Russia will break through the border by several kilometers. And it turns out that it will be necessary to re-sign again. And again in a circle.

Some publications often tell us fairy tales that Germany, when it was divided, became a member of NATO, and why can't Ukraine?

I have written and spoken about this many times and will repeat it again. Germany was divided as a result of the Second World War. It was a common consensus of the great powers at that time, because everyone believed that two world wars were too much for this country. That is why it was divided. The Soviet Union got the most belligerent part of Germany, Prussia.

Germany was able to become a member of NATO only in 1955. Prior to that, there were two waves of enlargement - in 1949, when NATO was created, and in 1952, when Greece and Türkiye joined. Germany became a member of NATO only in 1955. Why? Because Stalin had died and the new Malenkov-Beria leadership had settled in the Kremlin. They were ready to negotiate borders, peaceful coexistence, and were willing to make some concessions.

Germany's admission to NATO was exchanged for the neutrality of Austria, which had been neutral until then. This was done in order to avoid the possibility of redeploying troops to Northern and Southern Europe.

The icing on the cake was the American troops still stationed in Germany.

In other words, there was a tool that forced the Soviet Union to fulfill its obligations. No one promises Ukraine anything. Therefore, we need to put an end to all this talk. If we are told that Ukraine is going to be admitted to NATO in parts, then we should start talking about where the U.S. contingent will be stationed in Ukraine. In my opinion, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Odesa are the most acceptable locations. That's when Ukraine can start some negotiations about NATO “in parts” and not fall for all these tricks that they are trying to push on us once again.

Moreover, I believe that a cunning trap is being deliberately prepared for Ukraine. Theoretically, if Ukraine signs something with Russia, gives it part of its territory, and it is promised to be accepted into NATO someday. That is, Ukraine will be required not to respond, for example, to Russia's provocations, which will definitely happen, as it was in the so-called “Luhansk People's Republic” and “Donetsk People's Republic”, in exchange for being accepted into NATO. Ukraine will have some obligations that will not allow it to defend its territory or attack Russia's territory.

And this is a long-standing dream of Russia - to force Ukraine to sign something without taking any responsibility, while any “violations” (for example, retaliatory strikes against Russia) will be considered a “violation” of Ukraine's obligations to the West, which, together with Russia, will be playing it for a fool and twisting arms.

Therefore, Ukraine's task now is to concentrate on not being fooled by such fairy tales. Ukraine's task is to concentrate so that we are given the opportunity to strike deep into the Russian Federation. Ukraine's task is to create the prerequisites for chaos in Russia, including with its own weapons, so that the 1991 borders become possible as a result of this war.

It is possible that if chaos breaks out in Russia, it will be so exhausted that it will be forced to leave Ukraine's territory.

Source

About the author. Taras Zahorodniy, Managing Partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.