Dynamics of Russian military losses in Ukraine, pace of Russian offensive

Oleksandr Kovalenko, Ukrainian military expert and the observer of the Information Resistance group, has analyzed Russian losses and the pace of Russian offensive in Ukraine.

In December 2023, the expert his my vision for the war in 2024: defensive actions with periodic counterattacks, focusing on exhausting the enemy. Ukraine's goal is to maximize enemy exhaustion without focusing on territories.

"I warned that the Ukrainian Defense Forces might need to leave positions to improve their tactical positions. The aim is to use the land strategically to exhaust the enemy, but withdraw when losses become unacceptable. Despite emotional reactions and Russian misinformation, catastrophic events have been minimal since early 2024. To illustrate the predictability of current events, let’s look at the numbers," Kovalenko says.

Russian offensives and losses: 2022, 2023, 2024

2022:
- Personnel: 92,920 (34,550 in the first 6 months)
- Tanks: 2,820
- Armored vehicles: 5,222
- Barrel artillery: 1,936
- MLRS: 383
- Air defense: 204
- Motor transport: 4,290
- Special vehicles: 171

2023:
- Personnel: 253,290 (122,150 in the first 6 months; a 3.5-fold increase)
- Tanks: 2,954
- Armored vehicles: 5,003
- Barrel artillery: 6,461
- MLRS: 520
- Air defense: 412
- Motor transport: 6,610
- Special vehicles: 1,096

2024 (Jan. 1 to Jun. 30):
- Personnel: 183,800 (5.3 times growth)
- Tanks: 2,116
- Armored vehicles: 4,463
- Barrel artillery: 6,117
- MLRS: 165
- Air defense: 249
- Motor transport: 8,383
- Special vehicles: 1,171

In 2023, Russian personnel losses increased by 2.7 times compared to 2022, and in 2024 they grew by 1.5 times. The losses in 2024 are 5.3 times higher than in 2022. However, the pace of territorial capture has slowed significantly. But the most interesting thing is how much the capture of territories has slowed down under such conditions.

Capture of Ukrainian territories and Russian military losses

In order to understand how much the situation with the capture of Ukrainian territories by Russian occupation troops has changed, Kovalenko did not just give data on the Russia's personnel losses, but also compared certain periods with the area of captured land.

2022

Personnel - 92,920 (34,550 for the first six months of the war).

2023

Personnel - 253,290 (122,150 from 1 January to 30 June — an increase of 3.5 times). Overall for the year, a 2.7-fold increase in casualties.

2024 (1 January to 30 June)

Personnel - 183,800 (5.3-fold growth).

Particularly noteworthy is the increase in the rate of losses per half-year and the effectiveness of offensive actions of the Russian occupation forces in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Thus, in 2022 the Russian occupation forces were able to capture 63.9 thousand km² of Ukrainian territories. And if we compare the losses during the offensive campaign of the occupiers in 2022 with the area of the captured territory, the ratio is 1 body of the Russian soldier per 687 m² of Ukrainian land.

Expert geodesists and cartographers may be outraged by this calculation, because it considers the area of the territory by distance. But I note that there is no error, because the units are not attacking by areas, but by directions. Roughly speaking, the capture of 1 km² does not imply an offensive along its entire length, but an offensive on the enemy's position in one or two directions. Therefore, the loss of enemy personnel does not occur over the entire area, but in the direction of the offensive.

In 2023, the indicator of occupied territories was 683 km². Roughly speaking, every 2.5 m² of Ukrainian land went to the Russians at the cost of one body or 40 bodies per 100 m². In addition, compared to 2022, the number of losses per 1 m² of Ukrainian land for the Russians increased 275 times, and the rate of seizure of the territories themselves slowed down 93 times!

But it should be noted that the first half of 2023 represented the final phase of the offensive and the occupation of Bakhmut, as well as the preparation of the Russian forces for the counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and its beginning in May. That is, the first half of 2023 for Russian forces was less offensive intensive than the second half, especially starting in October 2023 and continuing into 2024.

As of 1 June 2024, the indicator of occupied territories was 752 km², or for every 4 m² there was 1 body of occupant. But of these, 278 km² were during the May "epic offensive" in the Kharkiv region, most of which took place in the grey zone with minimal losses. If we do not count this breakthrough through the grey zone, the rate of losses remains at 1 body per 2.5 m².

Conclusions

To date, the Russian occupation troops are trying to attack as intensively as possible, as long as they have resources. But spending much more resource than in 2022, they cannot achieve greater results of capturing Ukrainian territories than was demonstrated at the very beginning of the full-scale invasion. That is, with the obvious increase in losses in both manpower and equipment, there is no significant increase in the efficiency of the advance and occupation of Ukrainian lands.

In addition, the change in losses in equipment, especially road transport, artillery systems and special vehicles, is also noteworthy. In the first half of 2024 alone, the occupying Russian army lost more in these categories than in 2022 and 2023. And by the end of the current one, all categories will show record numbers.

In fact, this is an example of how the chosen tactic of defensive attrition works. Yes, in certain episodes it could have been implemented better, but I hope one learns from mistakes, and the figures show the correctness of the chosen vector of countering the Russian occupying forces.