How Ukrainian military spy chief Budanov turned from president's favorite to outsider, and what Yermak has to do with it

Deputies of the ruling Servant of the People party swear that such announcements in anonymous Telegrams and on a number of news sites are not true. They say that the Committee on Intelligence and National Security has not considered anything. To a clarifying question from journalists: ‘Will Budanov go as an ambassador to any country (imagine, it was necessary to devalue the diplomatic service so much that it was identified with exile - ed.) - the representatives say firm “No"

In fact, it is unlikely that General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi sincerely wanted to change his military uniform for a diplomatic mission in London. However, all those who know Zaluzhnyi and Budanov say that they are completely different in character and approach to military affairs. And Budanov is still a representative of the generation that is commonly called ‘rebels’.

Kyrylo Budanov, 38, has been the head of Ukraine's military intelligence since August 2020. His appointment to this position was linked to the high-profile Wagnergate scandal, an unsuccessful attempt to capture war criminals from the Wagner PMC who were in Belarus.

A year later, the presidential office claimed that no operation had taken place. However, in the summer of 2021, Zelenskyy himself admitted in an interview with Natalka Moseychuk that it did happen, and he personally called Alexander Lukashenko about 32 experienced killers.

The threat of a full-scale invasion allowed Budanov to launder himself from this scandal. After all, back in November 2021, the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine predicted that an invasion was inevitable. And then, according to Western media reports, he began quietly preparing his units - stockpiling ammunition, vehicles, fuel, and lubricants.

Already during the great war itself, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine under Budanov's leadership planned and conducted a number of successful operations against the invaders. What about the risky landing in the besieged Mariupol, the liberation of the Kharkiv suburbs in 2022, strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, etc. Whenever a big and loud bang happens on Russian territory, it is always confirmed that it was done by the SBU and the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine together.

We should also add that Budanov, who was a good field special forces officer in the past, periodically goes to the front line to visit his ‘guys’.

All of these operations have added to Budanov's recognition and popular love. In various ratings of Ukrainians' preferences, he is either slightly behind the president or even ahead. The intelligence chief is especially popular with young people on TikTok and Instagram. All of this together can be the biggest sin in the eyes of presidential office - because no one can be more beloved than the president.

Moreover, Budanov has long been called an alternative channel of communication with Zelenskyy.  And perhaps the only one, apart from Yermak, whose opinion mattered to the guarantor until recently. At a time when more and more of Yermak's friends, deputies, and classmates are leading entire areas and systemic industries.

Why did the relationship between Yermak and Budanov fail?

Firstly, Budanov's ability to say a clear ‘no’. And this was tested in the autumn of 2023, when the current head of intelligence resolutely refused to become Minister of Defense and then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces instead of Zaluzhnyi.

The second is that the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine buys weapons - and this means billions of dollars - through personal contacts with Western manufacturers and their intelligence agencies. At a time when rumors are increasingly circulating that presidential office is thinking about elections and is cutting the budget to ‘cultivate the electorate’ - where do you see such rivers of dollars and euros going to other hands that could start in politics?

There are several problems with Budanov's dismissal. First, society needs to be warmed up, so it is not surprising that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is increasingly appearing together with Oleh Ivashchenko, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

We should also put a certain label on Budanov. For example, a corrupt official. So it is quite logical that in the coming months a series of completely one-sided materials will be released, telling how the Defense Intelligence structures purchased something at inflated prices. And to make it all stick, it will be pinned on the portrait of former Zelenskyy's favorite.

So at some point, the presidential office may report that they have thrown out the terrible scum that prevented us from going to the borders in 1991. And in the meantime, it can privately open a bottle of collectible wine for getting rid of another potential competitor in the first elections after the war.

So far, fear has prevented Budanov from being fired. There is a fear that Budanov may carry out some interesting special operation outside the official structures.

I have no reason to worry about Budanov's fate. However, without him, Yermak can get everything.

 Mr Zelenskyy will find himself in complete information isolation, with only one person talking into his ear about what is in his personal interests. This is definitely not an option that will benefit Ukraine.

Specially for Espreso

About the author: Maryna Danyliuk-Yarmolaieva, journalist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.