Estonia assesses whether Russian army has enough forces for counter-offensive in Kursk region

ERR reported this.

‘The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation probably have problems with command in this region. For this reason, they were unable to respond effectively to the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the actions taken are defensive in nature, meaning they are setting up defensive lines and moving units,’ he said.

According to Puusepp, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to achieve the full effect of surprise, successfully concealing their plans.

‘According to Russian social media reports, the Russian Armed Forces are to launch a counter-offensive soon. However, there are no indications that the Russian army have sufficient forces and areas to launch such a major offensive,’ the lieutenant colonel explained.

According to Puusepp, the main fighting is currently taking place in the vicinity of the town of Sudzha, which is approximately 44 kilometres north-east of the city of Sumy and about 10 kilometres from the state border.

He also assessed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to expand their zone of control, which, according to Ukrainian sources, is 500 square kilometers of Kursk region, although the pace of advance has slowed compared to the start of the attack.

Ukraine’s cross-border incursion in Russia’s Kursk region

On August 6, the authorities of Russia's Kursk region stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly tried to break through the Russian border, but were pushed back. Later, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that "the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group retreated to its territory.”

On August 7, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin convened the Russian military leadership to discuss the situation in the Kursk region, which he called a "large-scale provocation." At the time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called on the international community to "strongly condemn the Kyiv regime's criminal attacks on Russian territory."

On August 10, President Zelenskyy called the operation in the Kursk region “pushing the war into the aggressor's territory.” At night of the same day, the authorities introduced a counterterrorism operation in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions of Russia.

On August 14, it became known that the Ukrainian military had formed a “sanitary (buffer) zone” for self-defense in the Kursk region of Russia. It is planned to open humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians, and if necessary, military commandant's offices will be established in the Russian region.

At a meeting with the president on August 15, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine had established the first military commandant's office in the Kursk region to provide humanitarian aid to local residents.

At the same time, Ukraine's Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, together with the military, is currently working on a possible route for a humanitarian corridor for civilians from Kursk to Sumy.

On August 15, The Independent reported that about 2,000 Russian servicemen were captured during an operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region.