Competition for mediators in potential Ukraine-Russia negotiations in full swing

The article was published as part of a joint project by OBOZ.UA and the Information Resistance group, citing Oleksandr Kovalenko.

The war in Ukraine, the largest conflict since World War II, presents a unique set of circumstances. Any country aspiring to play a major role in global or regional politics seeks to embed itself in this historic moment.

Thus, nearly every candidate for the role of mediator harbors not only conventional, self-serving interests. The leader of a country taking on this role automatically gains greater authority, recognition, and prominence in the historical narrative. Therefore, beyond the pursuit of material interests, there are also ambitions that current leaders may not have another chance to fulfill.

Turkey

According to Kovalenko,Turkey was the first to mediate Ukraine-Russia talks in 2022, but the process stalled, leaving behind the "Istanbul Agreements," often referenced by Russian propaganda. Despite supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity, including Crimea, Turkey maintains strong economic ties with Russia, ignoring most sanctions and sharing competing interests in Syria and Libya.

Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity but has economic and territorial interests that may align with Russia's demands in negotiations. Most mediator contenders have economic ties with Russia, questioning their impartiality. Turkey has lost its leading role and is no longer a top mediator candidate.

South Africa

In 2022, the Republic of South Africa joined the competition of peace plans. 

“However, South Africa began to take such initiatives almost immediately after reports surfaced about the transfer of South African weapons to Russia, which is why this option was never considered credible,” Kovalenko emphasizes.

Brazil

In February 2023, Brazil's new president, Lula da Silva, stated his desire to make an "exceptional contribution" to resolving the conflict but repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine should give up Crimea and recognize it as Russian.

For this overtly pro-Russian stance alone, Brazil's initiatives were not taken seriously and were relegated to the category of diplomatic chatter.

China

Since late 2022, China has signaled interest in mediating Ukraine-Russia peace talks with its peace plan. As a major international player, China's role could be decisive, but experts in Ukraine question whose side it will support.

Kyiv views Beijing's peace plan cautiously, despite China's formal support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, driven by its own Taiwan concerns. Though China hasn't recognized Crimea or the "DPR/LPR," its deep ties with Russia and economic interests raise distrust. Still, China holds the greatest influence over Moscow among potential mediators.

Kovalenko notes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a recent interview with the Brazilian outlet Metropolitan that the peace plan proposed by Brazil and China was more in line with Russia's interests and had not been agreed with Ukraine, and therefore was rejected by Kyiv. Along with this interview, there was information that Volodymyr Zelenskyy might meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in October.

“This suggests that, despite rejecting the Chinese peace plan, Kyiv does not dismiss the initiative entirely and is willing to discuss it at the highest level. Beijing, in turn, shares this readiness, indicating China's strong interest in being involved in the process,” the expert believes.

India

India has recently become active in the peace process, with Prime Minister Modi meeting Putin in Moscow and visiting Kyiv. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Brazilian and Indian counterparts in Saudi Arabia, and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is set to visit Russia this week.

Unexpectedly, India, positioning itself as a geopolitical player, has taken on the role of addressing potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Notably, India is a regional and even geopolitical rival of China, and, like China, has deep economic and energy ties with Russia, including extensive military-technical cooperation.

India, like other countries, seeks benefits from Russia, which raises doubts about its impartiality. However, Indian ammunition was crucial in addressing a shortage when U.S. aid was suspended. This competitive dynamic between India and China could potentially benefit Kyiv.

Azerbaijan

Over the past few weeks, there have been rumors that Baku may offer its mediation services. 

Ukraine and Azerbaijan have had stable relations, with Azerbaijan providing significant humanitarian aid and support during the war. Azerbaijani volunteers assisted Ukrainian refugees, and the country sent crucial equipment during energy attacks. Despite maintaining ties with Russia, Azerbaijan's position is influenced by regional dynamics and neighboring countries.

This summer, Azerbaijan's high-level reception of Vladimir Putin shocked many Ukrainians. The expected negative reaction was exacerbated by the lack of prior diplomatic preparation from Azerbaijan, which failed to mitigate the backlash. Instead of addressing the diplomatic misstep, Azerbaijan adopted an aggressive stance, dismissing Ukrainian concerns and emphasizing its internal policies.

The high-level diplomatic and informational missteps have led to widespread skepticism within Ukrainian society towards the idea of Azerbaijani mediation. This means that, at least in the short term, any process involving Azerbaijan will be met with strong distrust, effectively losing this opportunity.

However, time and certain developments may change this situation and increase Baku's chances of becoming more than just a participant in the mediation group.

Other "applicants"

Apart from the main contenders, others like Hungary's Viktor Orbán, known for his pro-Russian stance, are showing interest but with limited credibility.

Unexpectedly, Pakistan might also emerge as a serious contender, especially given its positive relations with China. This could lead to a potential mediation partnership between the two.

Oleksandr Kovalenko notes that most serious mediators support Ukraine's territorial integrity, but also have strong ties to Russia, raising concerns about bias. Competition among mediators leads to more flexible and historically impactful proposals. China and India have the highest chances due to their influence over Russia. However, other serious players could still emerge.