Back to Russia's nuclear tests once again

The primary goal is to pressure the United States into stopping Ukraine from using long-range weapons to strike deep within Russia. Unfortunately, they are nearing success.

I still believe that, in the medium term, Putin will not resort to using nuclear weapons. The main reason is that he is a coward who fears for his own life. Using nuclear weapons would eliminate the remaining taboo around the prospect of Putin's physical elimination.

Furthermore, it appears that no one in Putin's inner circle, aside from Patrushev and Kovalchuk, is willing to support the use of nuclear weapons, and in this case, Putin would be compelled to make a collective decision. Of course, the subjectivity of a Bastrykin or a Kiriyenko is very conditional right now. However, from the perspective of a potential elite coup, the use of nuclear weapons could ignite a desire among these figures to assert their influence and hasten the transition of power.

Nuclear weapons increase Putin's internal isolation. And he will turn into a madman who is a threat to the elites. Simply put, after the use of nuclear weapons, Putin will be forced to resort to internal terror and will have to purge the elites, opening the way for new cadres to come in and replace them in the short term. This will require enormous efforts. And Putin has recently demonstrated terrible laziness.

Let me remind everyone: the full-scale invasion began because Putin believed that a short, victorious war would turn him into the third pole of the world, and China and the United States would be forced to take him to a new Yalta conference to divide the world. With a high degree of probability, we can predict that nuclear weapons will lead to the isolation of the Russian Federation.

And I repeat once again: the current statements about the resumption of nuclear tests are part of the game to prevent Ukraine from hitting the Russian Federation with Western weapons deep inside. Therefore, there is definitely nothing to fear for now. Putin is not preparing any nuclear strikes.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.