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Ukraine strikes 15% of total gasoline production: economist Neskhodovskyi on consequences of damage to Russian refineries

15 March, 2024 Friday
17:00

Illia Neskhodovsky, head of the analytical direction of the ANTS network, noted that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil refining industry lead to a decrease in its foreign trade, pressure on the ruble, rising prices and fuel shortages for Russians

He spoke about this on Espreso TV.

"We need to consider several aspects of the consequences of these strikes. The first aspect is foreign economics. Since March 1, the export of petroleum products from Russia has been banned, so they remain in the country. This has negative consequences, as foreign trade decreases, which means less foreign exchange revenue. That is, certain contracts will be actually reduced, and cooperation with Russia can be dangerous because it will not fulfill contracts. And the decrease in foreign exchange income puts pressure on the ruble, which is already quite fragile and is holding on by all means before the "elections" in Russia," said the head of the ANTS analytical direction.

According to him, the consequences of the strike for internal factors include logistics problems, problems of storing oil and oil products.

"As for oil refining, the first point is the price issue. Prices reached a record high despite the ban on March 1. In recent years, this has not been the limit, as we realize that many traders are simply afraid to raise prices for fear of prosecutors, investigative committees and other law enforcement agencies. Accordingly, they keep the price down so that it does not rise much higher. The second point is the fuel shortage. In total, we have hit about 15% of the total gasoline production in Russia. They will be able to replace some of it from Belarus because their facilities are underutilized. But this will not cover the shortage that Russia has. That is, there is a price increase and a fuel shortage," commented Illia Neskhodovskyi.

The economist added that Russian gasoline will be used primarily for the war, and secondly, with the approach of the sowing season, for agricultural work, and what is left will be for Russians.

  • Earlier it was reported that the Russian government plans to introduce a temporary ban on gasoline exports for six months starting March 1 to offset the increase in demand in the spring and summer.
  • On March 12, drones attacked the territory of Russia: explosions in the Moscow region, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Tula regions, and hits to oil industry enterprises in Orlov and Nizhny Novgorod regions.
  • Also, at the Lukoil Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez (NORSI) refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, the primary oil refining unit AVT-6, which accounts for about half of the plant's capacity, was damaged in a night attack.
  • On the morning of March 13, the governor of the Ryazan region, Pavel Malkov, announced a fire at the refinery. He reported a drone attack, which was a special operation by the SBU.
  • Bloomberg reported that in two days, Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil refineries, damaging 12% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
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