Russia is likely to reformat defense and offense near Bakhmut. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Forecasts on the development of hostilities

So, we have learned in detail about the situation around Bakhmut, one of the hottest spots of the fighting. Now there are many predictions about how Russia will act next. Its army is being exhausted, as stated in the ISW conclusions. Next, Russia has to reformat its defense and offensive policy.

Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said that Mark Milley's statement that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve full de-occupation this year is a very powerful signal. It is synchronized with his message about the desire to find alternatives to ATACMS. The war continues to be managed by the West, led by the United States. Mark Milley confirms this and knows that by the end of the year we will not receive weapons that would allow us to completely deplete the logistics of the Russian Federation, which we need at a range of 300 km. Russians are running out of supplies near Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Avdiivka, etc. - in the areas where the fighting is most critical. General Muzhenko is confident that the key center of the fighting will be postponed until the summer, because Russians are seriously exhausted, and the Ukrainian military has not yet received weapons to confidently deplete Russia’s logistics. Russian personnel and old equipment are being utilized on the contact line. We are a bit more reserved and initially have believed that the critical moments would be at the end of April, but now they are moving significantly. Perhaps further than May. In this context, all parties are coming to the right conclusions, but the initial data is changing. We operate with them as something that has already happened. Ukraine has received a certain amount of weapons or will receive 160 Leopards. At the same time, Milley knows what we will get or not by the end of the year. He understands that with the available weapons, the smart and legendary generals at the head of the Ukrainian army will not dare to take too risky assaults, but will try to fight Russians and then, like in Kherson, recapture it.

Ways for Ukraine to build up defense capabilities 

Without this, Ukrainian victory is very shaky, because full de-occupation is being hampered despite powerful steps, such as the arrest warrant for Putin, the preparation of the Hague tribunal, and the production of large quantities of weapons and ammunition. They are afraid of unpredictable situations in Russia. According to the IMF, the positive scenario is the end of the war in mid-2024 with a USD 115 billion funding deficit. The negative scenario is the end of the war in 2025 with a deficit of USD 240 billion. In such circumstances, we need to prepare for a long confrontation, urgently launch missile, drone, and ammunition programs. Currently, Ukroboronprom is being transformed into a joint-stock company, but only 27 enterprises are corporatized. In the report, Ukroboronprom provides opportunities for cooperation and joint ventures with 19 countries, including the UK and the US. At the same time, it is urgent to withdraw the missile, aviation, and repair industries from Ukroboronprom and subordinate the Ministry of Defense to organize the maintenance and repair of Western weapons, instead of doing it on the basis of Ukroboronservice. A very positive step by the government is the launch of the drone program, ahead of the Defense Ministry and with 25% of the profits going to entrepreneurs. The number of offers has now grown to 76 types of drones. Of course, it will continue to decrease. In 2014, 5 out of 36 manufacturers remained. This is normal. The main thing is the surge. We need to revitalize the work within the country. We do what we can ourselves. If we can't, we do it together or seize the technology without returning it, as Israel once did for its own rise. This is necessary because we will get less and less help, because a strong, defensible Ukraine will concern our partners as well.

Supply of Polish Rosomaks to Ukraine

Military expert, editor-in-chief of Defence Express, Oleh Katkov noted that Ukraine has agreed with Poland to supply Rosomak armored personnel carriers. In the West, IFVs and APCs are distinguished primarily by their weapons. If Rosomak will be equipped with a classic module, a 30 mm cannon, then it is a wheeled IFV. This is a full-fledged defense, because Rosomak is a licensed version of the Ukrainian combat platform. It is also possible to install a machine gun combat module. Then it will be an armored personnel carrier. Rosomak is also a platform for the 120 mm Rak self-propelled mortar and one of the main assets of mechanized brigades. It is a rather powerful vehicle, the purchase of which will be funded by EU sources. New vehicles will be provided, so it is not a matter of two to three weeks before they are on the front line. The contract will be larger and maximally adapted to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The combat module in Poland is armed with the Israeli Spike anti-tank missile. Israel does not allow the re-export of its weapons, so there will be a question of replacing it with Stugna-P or other ATGMs.

A new US aid package 

The aid in question is USD 2.6 billion, but the main issue is the distribution of funds under the programs, because there is USAID, when weapons are ordered from manufacturers and take a long time, and presidential withdrawal, when they are taken from the US Army and given to Ukraine. According to Reuters, USD 2 billion will be provided immediately under the USAID program. In general, the package should include radars for detecting air targets, anti-tank missile systems, most likely Javelin, and ammunition, including tank ammunition, which may be subject to presidential exemption. By tank ammunition, they most likely mean 120 mm ammunition for the Leopard-2, because it has the same gun as the ABRAMS. Then, perhaps, Ukraine will also receive depleted uranium shells from the US, which are the main ones in the US army. We will get the exact list next week, but so far it seems that it will be a USAID package. 

Options for replacing ATACMS

According to Oleh Katkov, ATACMS missiles can be replaced by air-launched cruise missiles, which are better: Storm Shadow, Stals with a range of up to 560 km. Air-launched missiles are more reliable than ground-based missiles, because one fighter jet can work in different directions in a day. The second option is UAVs, both new and unrealized. The Storm Shadow is a serial product and is in use by NATO, while the “kamikaze” drones are a new development, and we are running into the technological cycle of their production.