Kremlin fails to achieve military goals set by late March - ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Experts recalled that in December 2022, Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov announced that Russian troops were focusing most of their efforts on seizing the Donetsk region, and Russian troops launched a winter offensive in early February along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and in certain areas of the front in the western part of the Donetsk region.

Later, the UK Ministry of Defense noted that Gerasimov failed to expand Russian control over Donbas and achieved only minor success by wasting mobilized personnel.

The analysts noted the concerns of Russian military observers: they are disappointed that Russian troops must end their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to prepare for Ukrainian counteroffensives. They also believe that Russia will not be able to continue a large-scale offensive if it cannot control Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks.

“ISW had long assessed that the Russian winter offensive is unlikely to be successful due to persistent failures of the Russian command to comprehend the time and space relationships involved in such a campaign. ISW also assessed that Russia would lack the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and ongoing recruitment campaigns in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories may indicate that Russia is preparing for reserve shortages,” the analysts noted. 

• In January, Bloomberg reported that despite the Russian army's losses in the war with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning a new offensive that could begin in February or March.

• National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that the Russians were preparing for a new wave of offensive in Ukraine by February 24 and were reconnoitering Ukraine's defense capabilities. Later, he emphasized that the government understands the threat of a repeat offensive by Russian troops on Ukrainian territory and is preparing vigorously.

• On February 1, the NSDC Secretary stated: “The Russians are preparing for the maximum escalation of the war, and no scenario can be ruled out in the next two to three weeks.”

• The Main Intelligence Directorate said that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his army to seize the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March.