Retreat or rotation of Russian military on right bank of Kherson region - Serhiy Zgurets column

There is such a term as "fog of war". Politicians, journalists, and experts who are trying to predict the future course of the war on the territory of Ukraine are exactly in this “fog of war”.  And this is the biggest war since the end of World War II, and the consequences of this war are extremely important for the entire system and world order.

Ukraine’s military success in the south

A rather interesting publication appeared in the American edition of The New York Times, where, with reference to the assessments of American intelligence, the following is stated: "the Ukrainian military should achieve success in the war against the Russian army in the next 6 weeks, if they can continue their offensive in the south and north east before the damp ground and snow force the army to pause."

In fact, the Ukrainian army does not count on such a pause at all and is going to fight in the winter as well, because it has all the possibilities for this.  And the Russian army is facing the same problems as at the beginning of the war: problems with logistics, poor intelligence, management, with a lack of commanders and trained infantry, as well as with significant losses.

Those mobilized, whom they are now throwing into battle, are not motivated, not sufficiently trained and poorly equipped.  So US officials say, speaking on condition of anonymity, that Ukraine must continue to use its advantage in the coming weeks, and that a Ukrainian offensive could soon force Russian forces in Kherson to retreat across the Dnipro.

Withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of Kherson region

The enemy plans to retreat in an organized manner from the right-bank part of the Kherson region and gain a foothold along the left bank of the Dnipro. And this will happen, according to forecasts, somewhere until the middle of November.

During this period  the occupying authorities from the Beryslav district and Kherson must ensure the gradual withdrawal of their units.  And after that, advanced units of the Russian army, which are still trying to hold back the advance of the Ukraine’s Armed Forces, will be withdrawn. But war is full of surprises and the progress of any plan can follow a different scenario.

Now we see that the Russian army is trying to carry out mass forced deportation of the population from the Kherson region, and is mining the Kakhovka HPP dam.

What is the enemy's logics if they implement the plan to blow up the Kakhovka HPP

Political scientist Volodymyr Molchanov believes that after this information was made public, the logic of the enemy became clear. This can be disinformation or making it look like Ukrainians have bought into this disinformation. But one way or another, the Russians made it clear that there were trucks with explosives on the dam, and they were connected to detonators and could go off at any moment, for example, if this bridge over the dam is bombed.

The Russians mined the airlock, which is generally nonsense from the point of view of losses for Ukraine and the needs of the occupiers, because the airlock is something that would have been good to destroy for the Armed Forces of Ukraine a long time ago. This would raise the level of the entire Dnipro a little below the Kakhovka Dam, but just a little, to a level that would not lead to any disasters, but would make most Russian ferry crossings impossible. The swampy area from where they cross from the left to the right bank would be flooded. This will reduce the possible threat in case the Russian forces blow up the dam.

Volodymyr Molchanov expressed the opinion that the mining of the dam is an informational and psychological operation by the Russians against the Ukrainians. Convince the political leadership of the inadmissibility of bombing these crossings and continue to use this crossing unhindered, in particular for the rotation of military forces. 

Volodymyr personally is not yet convinced that the Russian forces have decided to finally leave the right bank. So far, they are indeed withdrawing personnel troops in particular, but these troops, who stood for half a year at the fronts in blind defense, very often have a combat capacity even lower than the mobilized ones.

Humanitarian disaster on the right bank

Volodymyr Molchanov noted that the Russian forces will not have such a large number of people in the rear and a humanitarian catastrophe is expected on the right bank.  Since the Russians stop supplying goods there, and all the collaborators were taken out of there. They engage in systematic robbery of everything there: they take equipment from hospitals, the contents of pharmacies and shops. They take away everything from the schools they controlled, the equipment of the banks. What does it mean? That a real disaster can await the people of Kherson. No food, no utility services, because the Russians officially announced the evacuation of enterprises that provide utility services. It is not known whether Kherson residents will be able to independently establish communal services. Because the Russian soldiers as an occupying force still remain and they will loot empty houses, there are quite a few left after the departure of Ukrainians to the territory controlled by Ukraine.

Is the process of strengthening the enemy's fortifications taking place

Volodymyr Molchanov reported that around Kherson, along the perimeter of the city, the occupiers have partially built and are partially completing a fortification line: trenches and dugouts. There are also certain rumors, which most likely correspond to reality, that the Russians are preparing defense lines from the village of Oleksandrivka in the Mykolaiv region to Viryovochnaya Balka and even further, to the village of Blagodatny, which is south of Posad-Pokrovsky.  This is such an intermediate line between the current front line, which runs further north all the way past the Ingulets-Mykolaiv canal, somewhere in the middle between Kherson and this current front line. It means that the Russians still have many opportunities to hold on to these intermediate boundaries.

Volodymyr noted that according to unconfirmed information, the Russians themselves, who are now standing on these lines, were informed that they would be evacuated within a week.  But this does not mean that others will not take their place.

Does the evacuation mean that there is still no replacement of the airborne units with mobilized troops

Volodymyr noted that the rotation is taking place over the last days, when the Russians built a barge bridge, which only yesterday evening began to be finally destroyed.  About 2,000 Russian soldiers and officers have already used it towards the right bank. These were officers and also mobilized reserve officers, but their fighting capacity can be even higher than those who are withdrawn, because they are completely morally broken, they were engaged in robbery and looting all the time, only because they were not provided with food.

Volodymyr Molchanov said that when the Russian military was fleeing from the north of Kherson region at the beginning of October, everyone saw how the occupiers drove away in stolen civilian cars, loaded looted goods there, but at the same time threw their military equipment right at the positions where it remained for Ukraine’s Armed Forces. In particular, we are talking about the equipment that they used for defense as stationary firing points, such as T-62 tanks. This is no longer an army and, apparently, the Russian command could also understand this and try to replace them with fresh forces.

Did the strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge affect the barge that is under it

Volodymyr told me that there were two blows.  According to the information of OC South and persons close to General Marchenko, three barges closer to the left bank were destroyed: one in one row, and the other two in another. This means that this bridge has ceased to bring practical benefits. The Russians will be forced to use exclusively pontoon crossings on their left flank.