Rubio understands Putin’s true goal

Rubio recently spoke during congressional hearings as part of his confirmation process, where questions were posed to him—because, for some reason, in the U.S., it’s not customary to confirm someone without first questioning them. He said quite a bit, which sparked an uproar in Ukrainian internet circles. However, many seem to omit the key part of what he said. Here’s a direct quote:

“Putin’s goal now is to gain maximum influence so that he can effectively impose neutrality on Ukraine, rebuild, and invade again in four or five years. And I don’t think that’s an outcome any of us would support.”

"This statement makes Rubio’s speech very optimistic for Ukraine. It shows that, despite the verbal nuances of Trump’s team—particularly Musk and company—they still stand on our side. This is significant, considering the bleak expectations tied to Trump’s potential victory."

What’s the point here? You can believe in successful negotiations or not, but this is positive news either way.

If we believe negotiations are possible, and that Putin truly understands time is running out and he needs to exit the war, the key issue for us becomes security guarantees. These guarantees should ensure sustainable development and mitigate the threat of a renewed large-scale war. Of course, we must always remain prepared. But readiness reduces the likelihood of an attack. Strong security guarantees would pave the way for investors, and thus economic growth. These guarantees should also underpin our readiness.

In a realistic negotiation scenario, security guarantees become the central topic. It seems there are very few dreamers left in Ukraine who still believe in the near-term prospects of sipping coffee in Crimea or reclaiming the 1991 borders.

"The real focus now is on security guarantees. It’s vital that any demands for capitulation coming from Russia are unacceptable to the Americans."

It’s also critical that no one in Washington even considers pressuring Ukraine to fulfill Putin’s demands. They must prioritize robust guarantees ensuring Putin doesn’t return in a few years. Yes, NATO membership would be the best guarantee, but unfortunately, any expectations of a swift accession are unrealistic.

The main goal is to avoid capitulating to Putin’s terms. Rubio’s speech confirms that this won’t happen and that Putin’s demands for capitulation are unacceptable.

If we don’t believe in successful negotiations, Rubio’s speech is even more positive. It means the blame for failed talks will fall squarely on Putin, as he will demand capitulation, which is unacceptable not only for Ukraine but also for the U.S. This is crucial for maintaining U.S. support in the war. And it’s vital that Putin knows and understands this now, as it increases the chances of Russia abandoning its insane demands.

You can criticize the Americans all you want for providing too few tanks (forgetting that they only formally provided tanks to unlock the supply of German tanks) or for not giving us everything we ask for, but without U.S. support and its consolidating role at the start of the full-scale invasion, we’d be in a very different position right now—militarily and economically. Preserving this support is therefore a priority.

It’s also significant that Rubio understands Putin’s true goal. He’s not interested in Bakhmut or Pokrovsk. His target is all of Ukraine. By opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership and military support, Putin simply wants to keep hope alive for a future occupation of Ukraine.

Yes, the world will face more chaos over the next four years. And yes, Musk is engaging in behavior that would make Kolomoisky in his prime envious. But that doesn’t mean all is lost for us. Rubio’s speech is a confirmation of that.

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About the author: Serhii Fursa, investment expert, blogger.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.