Putin will avoid war in Ukraine in his presidential campaign - ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts, citing Russian opposition media, said that according to two sources in the Russian presidential administration, Putin's presidential campaign aims to present him as a leader who has made Russia an "island of peace."

The sources claimed that Putin's ratings are rising after speeches in which he criticizes the West, and that Russian state propaganda is contributing to this by increasingly publishing stories about "difficulties" in Western countries and the alleged inability of the United States to support Ukraine and Israel at the same time.

The source also said that the campaign will only focus on the war in Ukraine if there is a "very serious Russian success" on the front. Putin is reportedly preparing to announce his election campaign this month.

Analysts noted that Putin had previously downplayed Russia's offensive efforts near Avdiivka, calling it "active defense," which is consistent with the above.

The Kremlin-backed United Russia party has also reportedly realized that using the war in Ukraine in its election campaigns ahead of the September 2023 State Duma elections was ineffective and counterproductive.

"Concerns within the Kremlin and United Russia over domestic support for the war are not indications that United Russia or Putin’s dominance of Russian politics faces a legitimate threat in the upcoming presidential election, however. This campaign framing, if it occurs, would double down on Putin’s refusal to mobilize Russian society to a wartime footing and may increase the informational cost necessary to support a long-term war effort in Ukraine," the analysts said. 

• On November 6, Reuters reported that Putin had decided to run for president in 2024. The Kremlin reacted.