Putin prepares new "Mongoose Leap"

In order to predict military and political Russian goals for the next six months, I suggest paying attention to two parallel processes.

The first is noticeable intensification of military planning activities in recent weeks.  It looks less and less like simple eye candy or patching holes. After all, both Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi and other respected people advise to prepare for another Russian attempt.

Second, for several months, public and non-public diplomacy, experienced and simply frightened opinion makers in the West have been aggressively pushing the idea of much-needed stop to war and urgent need, even now, for peace negotiations and "Russia's place" in the global security system.

Parallel implementation of two directions may indicate the following. If at the first stage of war, the Kremlin planned to join Ukraine to Russia, now it needs a new "Mongoose Leap" in order to blackmail the whole world to find optimal conditions for exiting this shameful war.

Such an assumption is born in the search for an answer to the question of why the Russian regime would repeat the jump, if it is absolutely clear that it will no longer be possible to capture Ukraine. Putin is forced to seek not military, but political solution to the situation in which he finds himself. Military component is needed exclusively to intimidate the West in the first place. This does not mean that there will be no new massive offensive. On the contrary, the Russians need it to achieve desired effect.

The success of this combination can be counted on only if you believe that Ukraine is a willful executor of West's wishes.  Believing in this and other ridiculous self-inflicted myths saves Putin from suicide, but pushes Russia to collapse.  The tragic paradox of sub-empire and its naked king — he saves himself in order to destroy it.

About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.

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