Putin had been warned in advance about Prigozhin's mutiny, but he turned out to be "paralyzed" and unable to act decisively – WP

The Washington Post writes about this with reference to diplomats and representatives of intelligence in several countries, including Russia.

It is noted that the Russian security services warned the Russian president at least two or three days in advance that Prigozhin was preparing a possible mutiny.

The Kremlin and several strategic facilities immediately took measures to strengthen security and increased the number of presidential guards. No further measures were taken.

"Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers. Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels … There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react," said one anonymous European security official.

The lack of orders from the Kremlin's high command forced local officials to decide on their own how to act, according to European security officials. Without any clear orders, the local military and security chiefs decided not to try to stop Wagner's heavily armed forces.

"From our point of view this is the biggest sign of the unhealthy situation inside Russia. The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it is the same situation at the local level and even worse," said a high-ranking Ukrainian security official.

Also, one of the officials told WP that some people supported Prigozhin and his idea of “cleaning up”, that “the fish is rotting from the head.” According to a senior NATO official, some high-ranking figures in Moscow "seem to have even been sort of waiting for this, as if his attempt had been more successful, they would also have joined the plot," and many in the ranks of the Russian army wanted the Wagner Group to succeed in bringing about changes at the top of the Russian army, thinking that then "it would become easier for them to fight."

One of the diplomats of the Russian Federation said that “there was disarray. You could argue about the depth of it, but there really was a lack of agreement. We heard all these statements. They were not always consistent … For some time, they did not know how to react,” he said.

Putin vowed to crush the uprising the morning it began, but by the time he finally appeared in public more than 48 hours later, he said all steps had been taken on his "direct order" to avoid major bloodshed.

Members of Russia's elite have said disagreements over the conduct of the war and Russia's military leadership will continue, despite a Kremlin PR campaign to show Putin is in control and the start of a campaign to purge the ranks of the Russian military of Prigozhin critics and supporters among Russian ultranationalists.

Kremlin press secretary Peskov also told WP that the intelligence assessments were “nonsense” and shared “by people who have zero information.”

Prigozhin’s mutiny in Russia 

For several months, there has been a conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier of Wagner PMC, and the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, the situation escalated quickly on the evening of June 23.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow after the Russian leadership refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The militants entered several regions and moved towards the Russian capital, while at the entrance to Moscow they built firing points, dug trenches and mobilized all security forces.

On June 24, Wagner’s fighters took control of Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, and then entered the city of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would drop the criminal case against him.

On June 26, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

On June 27, the Federal Security Service of Russia announced that it dropped the criminal case related to the armed plot, in which Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was involved.

On the same day, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, the Wagner mercenaries who arrived with him would not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed there.

On July 3, Russian media published photos taken by local residents showing an alleged Wagner camp in the Mogilev region of Belarus. In contrast, Ukrainian intelligence noted that Prigozhin is unlikely to move all the fighters to Belarus and will not stay there permanently. It is obviously a matter of redeploying some of the Wagner soldiers. 

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On July 15, a large Wagner PMC convoy arrived in Belarus.

Read more on the events here.