Putin can no longer rule directly, power slips out of his hands - security expert Mussayev

An extremely important summit of the five Central Asian states took place in Xi'an. China finally rolled out its geopolitical claims to Central Asia. Russia's interests were also in Central Asia, but now China is starting to play its own game and does not take into account the Kremlin's interests.

What is absolutely new in relations with China and the Central Asian states is that, in addition to political and economic cooperation, cooperation in the field of defense and law enforcement has been openly proclaimed. This is a very important step, a tough step for Russia. Russia should think deeply, because all defense and law enforcement activities have always been carried out only under the auspices of the Russian Federation in our countries. And no one really claimed anything. In recent years, Turkey has carried out a small-scale unification of intelligence services and law enforcement agencies within the framework of the Turkic Union. Turkey has taken concrete steps toward Azerbaijan when they actually entered the Karabakh conflict.

“But such a step as China has taken now has never happened in the history of Central Asian countries' relations with other states and other leaders.”

We will see, of course, how this will be realized. But if China has just announced serious financial sums to be allocated to the Central Asian states, I think China will move forward in this direction.

If we are talking about the clash of interests in Central Asia, Russia's interests and China's interests, in the current situation Moscow is extremely dependent on the Celestial Empire. And it is not for nothing that Putin is trying to call Xi Jinping his older brother. This is a huge humiliation for Russia, but Putin has no other options. It is clear that China is now starting to play extremely sharply, but it is not just playing in the short term, like Putin, but in the medium term.

This is clearly evident in recent steps. China, by distancing itself from Russia's aggression in Ukraine, is showing its neutrality, some formal support for Russia in words about a peace project that might suit Russia, while at the same time moving in its own direction in its own interests. And these self-interests mean that China no longer sees Russia as an equal partner, but rather as a huge problem that Russia has faced in connection with the aggression in Ukraine.

So this movement of China in Central Asia, we notice something in the Transcaucasus, because now Armenia is already saying through the mouth of Prime Minister Pashinyan that it has no prospects of remaining in the CSTO. This is a very serious moment and a very disturbing wake-up call for Russia. The CSTO is practically a dead organization that has no prospects; no CSTO member, not even Belarus, will interfere in any military conflicts outside the CSTO, first of all. Secondly, the CSTO failed to resolve the issue of Karabakh, as you know. And it absolutely failed to resolve the issue of the border military clash between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, two important Central Asian states. So, the CSTO is losing its capabilities completely, and I predict that in the coming years,

“the situation with the CSTO will simply collapse 'automatically' in connection with Russia's coming defeat on its western front.”

This is already evident to anyone. China's actions are in line with the fact that it will no longer be possible to solve any global problems with Russia within the framework of two great powers. It has been clearly stated that China is committed to the policy of two great powers. This is not about Russia, of course, but about the United States and China, which claims to be the second great power. These moves all dramatically weaken the weight and political significance of Russia. This is how I would assess all of China's recent moves.

What is happening in Russia itself? Prigozhin, who is in charge of the Wagner criminal group and recruited tens of thousands of people for the war in Ukraine, gave an extremely scandalous interview in which he actually mixed Russian Defense Minister Shoigu with the mud. It's not a matter of sympathy for Shoigu, but of Prigozhin starting to play his second game. Prigozhin is very careful in his criticism of Gerasimov, much more careful than he is in his criticism of Shoigu. At the same time, he is quite neutral in his assessment of Putin. But Prigozhin is not just gaining military power; he is also gaining political public weight within Russia. Given who is covering for him, we can assume that the big chess game is not being played by Prigozhin, but by Patrushev himself, a man who can be considered a gray cardinal of Russian politics.

Perhaps I should put it bluntly: it is a myth that Putin has all the power there. It is impossible to say that now. And it did not all start today. The whole process of Putin's power decay and stratification has been taking place over the last few years (after 2014), and in connection with the aggression in Ukraine, the environment is, of course, looking for a way out - for themselves, first of all - of this situation. That is why the fact that Nikolai Patrushev always wanted to remain a gray cardinal and promote his son to the highest position in the state has been known for a long time, not just a rumor - Western intelligence services have concrete facts, and some leaks have shown this. But due to the failure of the aggression in Ukraine, it is quite possible that Patrushev will reorient himself to specific Z-patriotic, nationalist, chauvinistic structures of the Russian Federation. This is the 'right' step on his part, it is very beneficial for him. After all, the population of the Russian Federation is under pressure from propaganda, now simply zombified by the desire for imperialism. I look at people and I am surprised: the price of their lives, their sons, husbands, and fathers, is lower than the price of the state. There is an absolutely dramatic change in the life estimates of people in the Russian Federation. There is a horror: the wife thanks Putin for raising Russia, despite the fact that her husband was killed in Ukraine and his corpse was brought back. They take these white Lada cars and coffee makers - it's a nightmare. In this situation, Patrushev is clearly oriented, and the most interesting figure for him is Prigozhin.

In addition, it is worth noting that Prigozhin is not just a figure who can be manipulated. He went through prison, the 1990s, and managed to create a business structure in gangster St. Petersburg, which is impossible without crime. He never left these criminal structures and the criminal environment, and on this basis, with Putin's suggestion and blessing, he created a private military structure that has gained great authority in Russia, especially among imperial patriots. That is why Patrushev's position, and, I do not deny, the closest friends of the Kovalchuk brothers, especially the younger one, are certainly being determined today.

“And most likely there will be a big unification around Prigozhin.”

On the one hand, Prigozhin cannot be turned into a puppet, but on the other hand, it is certainly possible to share such enormous power with him. All these curtsies from Prigozhin to the West, especially to the Ukrainian army and the Armed Forces, show that he is not just pursuing a policy of ascending to power, but is laying the groundwork in advance to show that he can talk to Western countries, especially Ukraine, on an equal footing. He will praise Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy, and tell them that Ukraine's army-after his army, of course-is the second best in the world. This is worth a lot. And criticism of the Russian Armed Forces is his favorite thing, so he has to smear these things, take some army structures under his wing in the future, and move forward on this horse. Some people say that he has a criminal record, he comes from a criminal background, and no one will let him take the highest position in the Russian Federation. But when has that ever stopped anyone? Even in Ukraine. This may be an unpleasant moment for Ukrainians.

But Prigozhin is still alive. Who will win, whose resources will win? Will it be the resources of Patrushev, Prigozhin, the FSB, and possibly the financial resources of the Kovalchuks, which means direct influence and access to Putin? Or the Defense Ministry clan - the main intelligence directorate of the Russian General Staff and, accordingly, the army's power bloc, also with direct access to Putin?

On the one hand, it's a complicated issue, but on the other hand, the picture is very well drawn of what is happening in the Russian elite. Of course, the situation can change at any moment with the suspension of Prigozhin, with some kind of perturbations in the army environment, within the army environment itself. All of these factors can change the problem in an instant. But the general trend, I think, is that

“regardless of Putin's desire, he will move to remove him from power and transfer power to the group you described as the 'Patrushev group'”

It's not just Patrushev, his son, or the FSB structures - there are very serious 'underwater' structures under the influence of this group, which operate under the table, so to speak. And they have quite a bit of power to both remove Prigozhin and elevate him to the highest position. Prigozhin has a strong personality, he knows how to speak, he knows how to attract patriotic people, how to unite them around him, and a lot depends on Prigozhin himself. That's why Putin can't just remove him right now; he can't come to the GRU and give Novichok fans some kind of command. Or give the Chechens a direct order to remove Prigozhin, bypassing all structures. This is absolutely out of his hands. He could talk it through Patrushev, he could talk it through the military structures, through the GRU, as you mentioned. But he can no longer decide anything directly. And when all of these structures are themselves, as they say, up against the wall in a situation of expected deep political and military defeat, the threat of direct physical removal of Prigozhin is very unlikely. I would estimate it that way.

I would like to ask you about the logic of a coup d'état, how different structures can try to take over the legitimate legal power in parallel.

I'm not very knowledgeable in logic and theory - I learned it all in practice. In the noughties, as many people know, I was planning a coup d'état together with President Nazarbayev's son-in-law. The coup d'état in Kazakhstan - this would be a parallel to what is happening in Russia - was planned to be carried out with the help of a network structure of special services. There was no office, no staffing, no titles. By the way, Prigozhin does not have any special military ranks either. But there were people in all the power structures of Kazakhstan - the KNB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and journalists in the media. The network structure was modeled after the secret service: internal secrecy was maintained, and virtually none of the participants in this structure knew what they were doing and who they were in the field of technical control over the president and top officials. But there was no support like Prigozhin has now, and there was no power component like Prigozhin has now, we had no militants or mercenaries, only special services, specialists in different echelons of power.

Due to the lack of a security structure and the active use of political sentiment within the country and the government, Nazarbayev, in the face of his removal from power, created the 'Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan' headed by a well-known businessman, Mukhtar Ablyazov. This 'Democratic Choice' included ministers, oligarchs, and heads of banking structures. With such opposition to our network structure, we were unable to achieve our goals of breaking through to the highest authorities.

Prigozhin has a more favorable situation. That is, when we were condemned and removed from power there, it was quite easy to do so with the support of democratically-minded citizens of Kazakhstan. We are security forces, we were not planned to be democrats, we did not plan to be democrats.

“And Prigozhin also does not plan to come to power on the wave of democratic movements; he plans to come to power by force.”

That's why I predicted last year that he might succeed. This is how networkers and power structures, which exist not only in Russia and Kazakhstan, but also in some Western countries, solve specific issues in favor of democratic states and governments. This is a normal practice. And here Prigozhin made no discoveries; this is one of the ways to carry out a coup d'état.