Political analyst Morozov identifies three key factors shaping future of war

He shared these views on Espreso.

"We cautiously predict outcomes in war due to its inherent uncertainties. However, three factors are clear in shaping the near and medium-term future of the war. Firstly, it's widely believed that as long as Putin remains in power, the war will persist. Putin himself lacks the ability to stop it. Both he and his close associates are deeply entrenched in a militaristic mindset. They cannot envision a return to peaceful development. They are also facing international sanctions and potential legal consequences, making a shift towards peace unlikely," noted the political analyst.

Morozov emphasized a second point, highlighting the Kremlin's hope for Western change, which is improbable. The EU and the USA are unlikely to alter their stance on Ukraine, even with changes in U.S. leadership. A robust alliance remains committed to supporting Ukraine.

"The third important factor is assessing the resources available to the Kremlin for sustaining the war. A careful examination reveals the ongoing decline of the Russian economy and management system. Recent events, such as the Prigozhin incident and turmoil within the Russian army's top ranks, demonstrate the breakdown of Putin's leadership model. He's not as secure as he was in 2014 during the Crimea annexation. Now, a significant portion of his military leadership faces accusations of disloyalty, investigations, and scrutiny by the FSB and military prosecutor's office. Effective leadership is a crucial resource, as the war depends not only on economic but also human resources," explained the analyst.

Morozov also discussed the Russian Federation's economic resources, noting that the Kremlin presents a facade of strength in a challenging situation. In reality, the economy is rapidly shifting away from global currencies, complicating economic relationships. Attempts to pivot towards Eastern markets are struggling, as evident in economic data, despite increased trade with China. These challenges outweigh any gains for the Kremlin and Russia.

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