When will Ukraine's partners tire of Putin’s nuclear threats?

Moreover, the overall toll of this war, particularly the current offensive in Donbas, is proving extremely costly for Russia—both as a nation and for the Putin regime itself.

In just 2.5 years, Russia has nearly depleted its Soviet-era reserves, which took almost 40 years to accumulate. There's no reason to believe it will require any less time or effort to restore a comparable level of military capacity. China won't assist them in this endeavor—why would they?

In just 2.5 years, Russia has distorted and overheated its economy. The growing complaints from Nabiullina (Russia's Minister of Economic Development) and the entire technocratic government apparatus—covertly, cautiously, yet with increasing desperation—reveal the mounting cost of this war for Russia.

Yes, they certainly have a margin of safety, with money and resources flowing in. Moreover, the caution exhibited by Ukraine's partners has afforded them too much time and opportunity to exert pressure on Ukraine, where they outnumber its resources significantly—sometimes by a factor of ten.

However, all their successes on a global scale are:

• Miserable. The occupation of a few additional percent of Ukraine’s territory in exchange for nearly everything the USSR had accumulated amounts to very little.
• Fragile. As soon as the level of assistance to Ukraine shifts, everything they've gained will collapse.

They can only keep what they have gained or increase their gains if the assistance to Ukraine is not adequate to its needs. And Putin is well aware of this. And Putin's allies in the West understand this very well. 

That’s why, once again, when Ukraine raises the issue of scaling up assistance—particularly regarding the parameters for weapon use—and with the upcoming U.S. elections where Russia is supporting a specific candidate, they bring up the topic of nuclear weapons. This is, in fact, the only Russian weapon that truly warrants fear. It's a tactic to buy themselves a bit more time, which, while the West is searching for courage and political will, ultimately benefits Russia.

The only question is when the more reasonable partners of Ukraine will grow weary of these games.

Souce

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.