Russia's North troop grouping: buildup in Kursk region surges

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military and political observer with the Information Resistance group, shared this update on his Telegram channel.

Russia's North Group of Forces remains divided into three subgroups: Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk.

The Bryansk subgroup is the least combat-ready of the three, comprising:

• One motorized rifle unit
• 11 battalions
• A total personnel count of up to 9,000 troops

The Belgorod subgroup remains largely unchanged, with:

• Approximately 48,000 troops
• Over 300 tanks
• Around 900 armored combat vehicles (ACVs)
• About 800 units of barrel artillery
• Up to 150 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)

"The situation with the Kursk grouping is more interesting, as it continues to grow. Its current number exceeds 38,000 personnel, although there has been a recent reduction. The 15th separate rifle battalion of the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, part of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, and military administration have been withdrawn from the Russian 'counter-offensive' operation zone to restore combat effectiveness," Oleksandr Kovalenko noted.

"In Russia's reality, a unit is considered to have lost its combat capability and requires restoration not at a loss of 30% or more of its personnel, but when losses reach 50-60% or more. And we are talking about battalions," he added.

In terms of mechanized components, the Kursk grouping approximately consists of:

• Up to 150 tanks
• Around 500 armored fighting vehicles (AFVs)
• About 200 units of barrel artillery
• Up to 100 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)

“As seen from the figures, the potential of the Kursk group is lower than that of the Belgorod group but significantly higher than the Bryansk group. Moreover, the Kursk group is still expanding, and if by the end of October the Russian command increases its number to 48-50,000 personnel, I wouldn’t be surprised, as I predicted such an increase a month ago,” writes military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko.

By the end of October, the North Group of Forces is expected to exceed 100,000 personnel. As a reminder, in January 2024, their number was no more than 35,000, and on the eve of the Kharkiv offensive, the group was increased to 45-48,000.

Kovalenko explains that this large force buildup doesn’t come from nowhere—it’s drawn from the combat zone in Ukraine. If this manpower weren’t currently being deployed in the Kursk region and accumulated further, it would likely be used for more aggressive offensive actions in specific areas.

These moves, while serving an exhausting and constraining function, play a crucial role in Ukraine's broader defense strategy. However, despite the strategic advantages, Kovalenko warns of a concerning nuance. The total number of the North Group of Forces could surpass 110,000 personnel. If the Russian command were to disregard the Kursk region and concentrate their forces on one particular front, they could potentially achieve situational gains, despite suffering significant losses. Fortunately, Kovalenko concludes, they are unlikely to take such a step.