No winners in Prigozhin's coup

I stick to the opinion that it was an attempted coup. My hypothesis is this: Prigozhin was preparing for it, and it was not a spontaneous decision. Please note: half a day before the start of all the actions, he gave an interview saying that no one had bombed Donbas for eight years. And this interview was directed primarily at the West (the world), not at Russia.

I think the idea was as follows: "The Wagner soldiers would enter Rostov not just to seize the headquarters of the southern military district, but, first of all, to arrest Shoigu, who was there. After that, they would have to start marching on Moscow, holding the minister as a circus bear. It is important that, having failed to capture Shoigu, Prigozhin decided not to change his plans.

“Did Prigozhin want to overthrow Putin? Most certainly not. He needed security guarantees, subjectivity, and guarantees of continued financial orders. And most importantly, he needed a head of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defence that he understood”

So, to sum up, this is not a classic coup that involves changing the first person: it is an attempted coup where the first person would have stayed, but would have been under a certain siege from the security forces.

Why did Prigozhin move forward so easily?

Firstly, the collapsed system of the FSB, police and Rosgvardia, which did not "sign up" to such actions. Indeed, it was in many ways reminiscent of Crimea in 2014, when instructions from Kyiv were simply not followed.

Secondly, a tough instruction was expected from Putin, and he gave it, if at all, in a very sluggish manner (his video address was simply pathetic).

And thirdly, Russian society does not understand what it is fighting for, and the "little people" in uniform, who have been taught to keep their heads down, have returned to their shells, where "not everything is so clear".

Why didn't Prigozhin make it to Moscow?

I think, first of all, because he was afraid. His plan had clear goals, and with Lukashenko's help, he achieved some of those goals. However, the most important thing is that he has not yet received his defence minister and chief of the general staff.

After weighing up the pros and cons, Prigozhin decided to take the half a loaf which is better than none, and step aside. However, it seems that he is convinced that he will be able to repeat his campaign if necessary. However, the state system must be completely broken down to miss such a blow twice.

“Another important aspect is that all the Kremlin's towers have, in one way or another, rallied around Putin. And this process will continue for some time. Everybody understands that a weakened leader is the best excuse to divide the pie. Putin stopped being the alpha male of Russian politics at the end of last summer. Now he has finally turned into a ‘collective Putin’.”

Who has won?

There are no winners in this story yet. So far, it looks like all the main actors have lost. I wrote about Prigozhin, the security forces and Putin above.

Lukashenko has received an open Pandora's box. If he lets the Wagner soldiers into Belarus, he runs the risk of a coup in his own country. 

Therefore, he will probably try to provide a legal residence permit and nothing more, although the process may get out of his control. However, Lukashenko thinks that Prigozhin is the person who will help him in his shadowy African projects.

The FSB will take some time to recover and will try to behave quietly for some time after such a blow.

The main issue is the replacement of Shoigu and Gerasimov. This is the most painful moment for Putin. And he will try to delay it.

“In short: the system has missed a serious blow, and this system will have to heal its wounds for some time. But such systems have one answer to all challenges: not changes from within, but repression. Therefore, in a few weeks, the first arrests will begin. The sooner they start and the more massive they are, the better for us.”

Prospects for the war

So far, we have two unknowns. The first is whether Putin will replace the top military leadership and, if so, whom. Much will depend on this at the front.

The second unknown is how China and the United States will behave after all this. The other day, the whole world was on edge not because of Prigozhin, but because of nuclear weapons. A coup in a country with nuclear weapons is a global challenge.

Therefore, it is too early to make any predictions. Although both China and the US benefit from Putin's further weakening. But here we have a few days to observe the reaction.

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs.