Taiwan weighs abandoning submarine fleet in favor of Ukraine's drone strategy

The Resurgam channel's author shared their opinions about Taiwan's strategy.

Taiwan is currently debating whether to allocate $8.9 billion for the construction of seven submarines or to instead draw from Ukraine’s experience, which has been studied by two government agencies, including the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology. The alternative would be to invest in surface drones as a potentially more effective defense strategy.

Building submarines is increasingly seen as ineffective, with intelligence from both Taiwan and the U.S. suggesting that Beijing could take aggressive actions as early as 2027. The submarine construction plan runs from 2025 to 2038, with only one vessel expected to be operational by 2027.

The original reason Taiwan sought submarines was to counter a possible Chinese invasion involving a large-scale amphibious landing. While some anticipate such a scenario, in reality, China may not need such high-risk operations. Despite Taiwan’s smaller military, the island’s geography and defense capabilities complicate any invasion planning. The last major amphibious landing took place in 1944, underscoring the difficulty of such operations.

Instead, China’s likely strategy would involve a blockade, following missile strikes aimed at dismantling Taiwan’s air defense and anti-ship systems. This blockade would cripple Taiwan’s port-driven economy and lead to severe food shortages, resembling a "medieval siege" strategy.

To break this potential siege, Taiwan initially planned to deploy a large submarine fleet stationed outside the island. These submarines could be serviced at U.S. bases, some of which were part of military exercises. However, with the delayed timeline for submarine readiness, Taiwan is considering Ukraine’s model of using surface drones to strike the Chinese fleet.

Taiwan could potentially produce these drones in the safe, central part of the island and deliver them stealthily to points around its waters. Coupled with its existing submarine fleet, Taiwan aims to disrupt the blockade and severely damage the Chinese fleet, undermining its naval parity with the U.S.

The goal is that if China’s military leadership perceives that their fleet has sustained critical losses, making an even conflict with the U.S. untenable, Beijing may be forced to abandon its blockade strategy.