NATO should seriously plan for scenario of Russia-controlled Belarus – ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to achieve significant success in strengthening his influence over Belarus, regardless of the outcome of his invasion of Ukraine, experts believe.

"Russia’s likely permanent gains in Belarus present the West with a decision about how to deal with the potential future security landscape on NATO’s eastern flank. If the West allows Putin to maintain his current gains in Ukraine—particularly Crimea and eastern Kherson Oblast—then the Kremlin will be able to use both occupied Belarusian and Ukrainian territory to further threaten Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank," the Institute emphasized.

The West, according to analysts, can alternatively establish the conditions for a future in which territorially the whole of Ukraine will become a reliable military partner in the defense of NATO's eastern flank against Russia and Russia-occupied Belarus.

"This preferable long-term future is predicated on immediate and sustained decisive Western action to empower Ukraine to expel Russian forces from its territory. It is extraordinary unlikely that the West will be able to defeat or respond effectively to the Russian campaign to absorb Belarus without first defeating the Russian invasion of Ukraine," ISW added.

• Earlier, the Dossier analytical center reported that the Kremlin plans to seize Belarus by 2030. The war in Ukraine slightly slowed down the process of the absorption of Belarus by Russia, but did not stop it.