Kremlin plans to take over Belarus by 2030 - analysts

The Dossier think tank shared its analysis.

Analysts have studied the document "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation on the Belarusian Direction," according to which the Kremlin's global goal is to establish the dominance of the Russian language over the Belarusian language, to adjust Belarusian legislation to Russian law, and to subjugate the socio-political, scientific, and cultural life of Belarus. Each of the goals was to be achieved by 2022, 2025, and 2030.

"The key role in the Kremlin's plans is played by the Union State - it is through it that Russia is going to build up its forces in Belarus," Dossier notes.

"In addition to harmonizing trade and economic relations, Russia plans to establish control over the military and political sector of Belarus by 2030. The tasks of Russian intelligence include limiting the influence of "nationalist and pro-Western" forces, completing the reform of the Belarusian Constitution in line with the interests of the Russian Federation, and consolidating pro-Russian sentiment in the military and political elites and among the population," the analysts add.

Russia also plans to take control of education in Belarus and open EGE (Russian Unified State Exam) centers there by 2030. In addition, Russia intends to open its scientific and cultural centers in various cities of Belarus.

According to analysts, the war in Ukraine has slowed down the process of Belarus' absorption by Russia, but has not stopped it.

• In the summer of 2022, the adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that Russia was dragging Belarus into a war to absorb it.