Espreso. Global
Review

Who shot down Russian Il-76 carrying missiles? Column by Serhiy Zgurets

25 January, 2024 Thursday
11:35

The Russian military aircraft Il-76 was used to transport anti-aircraft and ballistic missiles to the Belgorod area

client/title.list_title

About Russian IL-76 downing

I'll start with the story of a Russian Il-76 downing. On January 24, at about 10 o'clock in the Belgorod region near the village of Yablonovo, an Il-76 military transport plane crashed. Local Telegram channels posted a video showing the plane flying down and then exploding on the ground. The blast is quite powerful, and before that, large pieces of debris or parts of the cargo fall out of the plane.

Almost immediately, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the loss of the plane, despite its usual practice of keeping silent and not commenting on such events. Moreover, the so-called Russian MoD quickly announced that the Il-76 was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners transported to Belgorod for exchange. Subsequently, it also claimed that an anti-aircraft missile system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had shot down the plane somewhere near the village of Liptsi, Kharkiv region. And then the Russians published a list of prisoners who were allegedly on board the plane. But the checks showed that at least 17 Ukrainian POWs had returned to Ukraine during earlier swaps.

At the same time, no remains of bodies were shown at the crash site. As for the reaction from the Ukrainian side, in my opinion, it was too slow. In particular, at first, the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of War Prisoners officially reported that the enemy was actively conducting an information special operation to destabilize Ukrainian society. And then, finally, there was a statement from the Ukrainian General Staff, which claimed that the Armed Forces were taking all measures to protect Ukraine and Ukrainians, and that the Russian troops had launched 19 missile attacks on the Kharkiv region in the last week alone. I would like to remind you that the Russian military often uses S-300, S-400, or Iskander surface-to-air missile systems.

In this context, Ukrainian General Staff reported that the intensification of Ukrainian cities' shelling was directly correlated with the increase in the number of flights to the Belgorod airfield. And it was the Il-76 military transport aircraft that was used to transport anti-aircraft and ballistic missiles to the Belgorod area. Therefore, to reduce this threat, the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only control the airspace but also control the logistics of their supply using transport aircraft.

Then there was a final decision that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would continue to destroy the means of supply, control of airspace and the destruction of the terrorist threat, including on the Belgorod and Kharkiv directions. In other words, one could understand that the General Staff was answering the question of who shot down the Il-76 carrying the missiles and that Russian aircraft that pose a threat to Ukraine will continue to be destroyed. So far, this story looks exactly like this.

However, I do not exclude that there will be more details later because recently the Defense Intelligence claimed that the POW swap that was supposed to take place yesterday did not happen. And now we do not have reliable information, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate, about who exactly was on board the Il-76. Based on this, they stated, we can talk about planned and deliberate actions of the Russian Federation to destabilize the situation in Ukraine and weaken international support for Ukraine. This is the conclusion of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Let's wait for the continuation of this story.

Situation at front - Avdiivka direction

And then we talk about what is happening on the contact line, where the entire front line is holding due to Ukrainian soldiers' courage. First of all, let's look at the Avdiivka direction, where a significant number of attacks from different directions took place yesterday.

Yegor Firsov, a Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman, said the situation is difficult in the Avdiivka direction. "The enemy is using a lot of guided bombs and FABs, aerial bombs that Russians use every day. This is a nightmare for a soldier, because if a bomb strikes nearby and a soldier is contused, he seems to be fine, but it is very difficult for him to continue fighting. Some of the fighting takes place in the so-called Dachas (dacha - summer cottage). My comrades from other units have been pushing the enemy hard, recapturing some of their positions, but the Russian troops are using the cottage area, which is equipped with cellars and basements. The enemy is hiding there. Our FPV drones fly into the house where the occupants are hiding, but it is very difficult to break through the basement.”

The serviceman noted that there is a large concentration of Russian electronic warfare. The guys know how to bypass it, but this creates certain obstacles to the UAVs' operation. The Russian troops have also begun to actively use night drones, which are hindering the advance. And it is very difficult to hide from them, so we need to equip vehicles and equipment with electronic warfare devices. This is currently one of the priority areas to protect ourselves from Russian FPV drones.

New details of the Russian missile attack on January 23

And then about realities related to missile attacks on Ukraine. We're going to bring in Oleksandr Ruvin, Director of Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise of Ukraine's Justice Ministry, and ask him about his analysis of the Russian missile attack that took place on January 23.

Oleksandr Ruvin said that experts from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise of the Ukrainian Justice Ministry were at all the sites where weapons were used on January 23 in Kyiv and Kyiv region, and did not find any new specific missiles. These were Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles that flew from the Zhytomyr direction and then changed direction to Kyiv. At certain locations, objects were found that clearly indicate that not only cruise missiles were used, but also missiles flying along a ballistic trajectory, these are 48 missiles used by the Russian forces in S-400 systems. These missiles are supposed to be used for air defense, but the Russian Federation has modified them and now they have a surface-to-surface capability. The relevant objects have been found, so we can accurately identify them as S-400 missiles.

The Director of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise added that regarding the use of 48 missiles from the S-400 system, these missiles are not designed for precise targeting because they cover large territories. Therefore, according to experts, if these missiles were employed by the adversary, considering their inaccuracy, the strikes were likely aimed at causing material damage and casualties among the civilian population.

Ruvin noted regarding North Korean missiles that there are remnants of missiles that, up to a certain point, were not used by the Russian army. These objects exhibit specific characteristics that allow us to conclude that the missiles were not manufactured in Russia. In the near future, more information will be provided, but for now, it's mentioned that these missiles were used to launch attacks on both Kyiv and Kharkiv. Currently, investigations are ongoing regarding the composition of metals and other components.

The scientist revealed that the P-35 missiles were used by the Russian army for the first time on Ukrainian territory. Debris from these missiles has been collected at the impact sites. Currently, examinations and identification processes are underway. It is known that the P-35 is an old Soviet missile, lacking precision and not even hitting within a range of 1.5-2 km. However, it is a large and powerful missile. Presently, efforts are being made to establish all the characteristics of these missiles to prepare relevant evidence for submission to the International Criminal Court through the pre-trial investigation bodies. Based on the available debris, it can be confirmed that these are remnants of P-35 missiles.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Friday
11 October
21:28
Slovakia intends to expand repair base for Ukrainian military equipment
21:05
Europe won't be secure until Ukraine is in NATO - former U.S. ambassador
20:47
Updated
Ukraine to share list of journalists in Russian captivity with Vatican after Zelenskyy-Pope meeting
20:31
OPINION
What's behind word 'peace'?
20:08
Deceased journalist Roshchyna held in Russian detention center known for brutal torture
19:49
Affiliate Material
Rebuilding Ukraine: Sumy region's recovery from Russian occupation
19:30
Exclusive
Delivery of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine set to outpace F-16 timeline
19:12
Ukraine’s strikes on ammo depots poise Russia to face shell crisis - Estonian intelligence
18:55
78 clashes occur at front on Oct. 11: Ukraine's General Staff names hottest areas
18:33
Affiliate Material
Reconstruction progress in Odesa region: сompensation timeline, application process
18:10
Scholz pledges €1.4 billion in aid for Ukraine during talks with Zelenskyy
17:51
Exclusive
Russia's advance in Kupyansk sector: Ukrainian military reveals strategic objectives
17:32
Interpol-wanted Islamic State member detained in Kyiv
17:13
Russian troops advance in Toretsk, reinforce defence near Chasiv Yar - Ukrainian military
16:54
Russia damages at least 1,641 schools in Ukraine, destroys 201 more
16:36
OPINION
Is Ukraine just one step from NATO and victory?
16:15
Exclusive
Kim Jong-Un will not send troops to Ukraine due to U.S. threat — Ukrainian general
15:59
Russian troops face logistical crisis following destruction of Feodosia oil depot — Atesh guerrillas
15:41
Exclusive
Ukrainian general names timeline for delivery of French Mirage aircraft
15:24
Ukrainian intelligence's cyber specialists target Russian military educational institutions
14:58
Russia to accept tangerines as currency amid payment difficulties caused by sanctions
14:36
Affiliate Material
War in Ukraine: Reconstruction progress in Chernihiv region and key factors delaying recovery efforts
14:03
Over 70% of wounded Ukrainian military return to service - Medical Forces Commander 
13:35
OPINION
Kadyrov's blood revenge. What it means for Russian elites
13:14
Ukrainian journalist dies in Russian captivity: Ukraine launches war crime and murder investigation
12:36
Exclusive
Russia aims to advance towards Ukrainian logistics routes in Kursk region assault — military expert
11:50
Ukrainian Armed Forces control 40-50% of Toretsk - City Military Administration
11:27
ISW analyzes impact of Ukraine's strikes on Russian ammunition depots on frontline dynamics
11:03
169 clashes erupt on Russian-Ukrainian frontline, with Russia pushing in Lyman direction
10:40
Russia captures 3 settlements near Myrnohrad in Pokrovsk direction - DeepState
10:17
Ukraine, China discuss political settlement of war launched by Russia
09:55
Russian troops attack Odesa region, killing 4 people, including teenager
09:36
Russia loses military helicopter, 8 tanks and 1,140 soldiers in one day of war in Ukraine
2024, Thursday
10 October
21:20
Radio Liberty journalists come under Russian fire in Bakhmut sector
21:05
Ukraine's MoD approves over 140 new UAV models for operation in 2024
20:50
Norway allocates EUR 82 million to boost production of weapons for Ukraine
20:32
Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna dies in Russian captivity
20:15
Exclusive
North Korean soldiers may appear in Ukraine - Defense Express
19:55
Could hypothetical invitation to NATO not be trap for Ukraine?
19:40
Russian army hits almost 300 objects of Ukraine's port infrastructure in 3 months
More news