Russian S-300 destruction, Moscow attack, Pentagon combat assessments and Chasiv Yar situation. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Ukrainian Navy destroys Russian S-300 air defense systems

I'll start with the big news: last night, units of the Ukrainian Navy, in coordination with other Defense Forces, struck a Russian S-300 missile system near the village of Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov region. This was reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. The distance is about 160 km from the front line, and at Defence Express, we speculated that Ukraine likely used the Neptune missile system for the strike, as it is the only one in the Ukrainian Navy’s arsenal capable of reaching that distance. This isn't the first time Neptune has been used to thin out Russia’s air defense system. The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery is also located in the Rostov region, and we hope Ukrainian drones will visit it next, as the S-300s won't be in the way anymore.

Ukrainian UAV attack on Russian territory

In the Rostov region, an oil depot in the village of Proletarskoye continues to burn following a "visit" from Ukrainian drones. The storage tanks containing diesel fuel have been ablaze for four days, with 20 out of 74 tanks destroyed, and the fire shows no signs of being extinguished.

Recently, Ukrainian drones struck several Russian regions, including Moscow and the Moscow region. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down 45 Ukrainian UAVs in the Moscow, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, and Kursk regions. Russia calls it the most massive attack, but I’m certain that an even larger one is yet to come, as the intensity and scale of Ukrainian drone strikes on targets in Russia are increasing.

This is becoming a significant sign of systematic actions by Ukrainian defense forces, in addition to the shocking asymmetric tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as seen in the Kursk region. The offensive operation there has been ongoing since August 6, with progress reported on several fronts, including the potential encirclement of Russian units in the Luzhkovsky district following the destruction of both stationary and new pontoon bridges.

U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency's assessments of the course of hostilities

Meanwhile, amidst the Ukrainian offensive, Bloomberg published an article titled Russia and Ukraine Can’t Mount Major Offensives Against Each Other, US Says. The article is based on a report from the U.S. Department of Defense's intelligence agency, which is an appendix to the quarterly report on U.S. aid to Ukraine totaling $61 billion, starting from April. This report covers the three months ending on June 30, and the American intelligence did not include the situation in Kursk, as it was not yet relevant at the time. Therefore, in my view, the conclusions drawn are somewhat outdated.

Currently, the dynamics on the front line are changing significantly, and the only point I’d like to make based on this report is that there are questions that remain unanswered. The $61 billion U.S. aid package includes approximately $50 billion for American defense contractors producing weapons to replace those provided from Pentagon stocks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The remaining $11 billion, plus $4 billion left from last year, totaling around $15 billion, are intended to be allocated to Ukraine from Pentagon reserves on a fairly regular basis.

So, to date, about $1 billion has been used in this area, and the last package last month amounted to about $125 million, but in fact, in order to use all this money, the receipts of American aid for the transfer of these weapons from the Pentagon's stockpiles should be somewhere in the range of $2 billion per month in order to really use the 15 or 14 billion that is provided by American aid by the end of the fiscal year. The rate of allocation of these funds is too low in terms of what is currently being allocated. That is, there are reserves, but the pace of allocations for the needs of Ukrainian Armed Forces is not sufficient. This is probably why Zelenskyy mentioned just the other day that he called on Ukraine's partners, both the United States and other countries, to increase the transfer of weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, because the rhythmic and timely supply of ammunition, equipment, armored vehicles, and other weapons systems is what is affecting the front line now. 

Russians' superiority in ammunition

When discussing ammunition, it’s worth noting that some foreign media, including the Financial Times, have reported that certain parts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are redistributing and using ammunition sparingly due to the focus on the Kursk operation. While this might be accurate, it is important to consider that Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi recently provided a briefing on the specifics of the offensive in the Kursk direction. During this briefing, he presented charts indicating that the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently have one of the largest amounts of ammunition in use.

Daily, approximately 14,000 rounds are used (compared to 3,000 to 7,000 per day before U.S. aid). However, Russian forces still have an advantage, with their ammunition usage at about 45,000 rounds per day, according to Syrskyi. Thus, Russian troops maintain a threefold superiority in ammunition.

Situation in Chasiv Yar

Andriy Polukhin, a spokesman for the press service of Ukraine's 24th King Danylo Brigade, addressed the situation in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region. He discussed whether the redeployment of Russian troops from this area to the Kursk direction has eased the operational environment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“It's too early to say, the number of attacks on Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar has not changed. They are attacking regularly, trying to cross the canal, and our guys are holding back these attacks. Thanks to Ukrainian soldiers, who are keeping the positions, thanks to the work of Ukrainian drones, thanks to the work of our artillery, the Russians are holding back and it is difficult for them to approach Ukrainian positions with mechanized vehicles. Now the front line is stable, but the attacks continue, they happen almost every day,” he said. 

As for whether the Russian troops are entering the eastern districts of Chasiv Yar, in particular, Zhovtnevyi, the spokesman said, “At the moment, there is no information that the Russians have entered such neighborhoods, Ukrainian soldiers do not allow them to approach the positions, and all their (Russian troops' - ed.) assaults fail. Perhaps there are similar situations among other adjacent units, unfortunately, I cannot talk for them.”

Andriy Polukhin confirmed that Russian troops are trying to conduct broader offensive operations from the north.

“There is such information, Russia's task now is to cross the canal, to do this they need to capture the crossings, there are few of them, and one is really on the northern side, and so, of course, the attacks are more intense there. But there is also a similar crossing in the city itself, and even a little further south along the canal. The enemy is trying to capture these crossings here and there to allow them to transport equipment, but again, thanks to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, this is not happening,” he said.

The spokesman also noted that it is now quite difficult for Russian forces to use mechanized equipment, they are trying to accumulate small infantry groups and thus trying to advance to the positions.

“It is known that this is a regular army, these are people who have either been mobilized or signed a contract, people who are actually trained. And this tactic is not new to them, they have been using it for a long time. Initially, it was noticeable in the defense of the city of Bakhmut, so this is a common practice for them, and there is someone to teach it to them and someone to implement it. And even if a new person joins their unit, he or she will be trained in this tactic,” says Andriy Polukhin.

Ammunition situation

"To accomplish our tasks and conduct defense, our current ammunition supply is sufficient. However, talking to the guys and artillerymen, everyone wants to hit targets more effectively. While we have enough ammunition for the defense tasks we’re currently performing, having a larger supply would enable us to work more efficiently," says a representative of the 24th King Danylo Brigade.

According to him, the use of aerial bombs in their sector is decreasing, meaning Russian troops have reduced their air operations. However, the military official notes that this trend began even before the Kursk operation, “When the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an ammunition storage site on Russian territory, it was indeed felt. They are prioritizing which directions their aviation operates. While they still target our area of responsibility, including Chasiv Yar, with guided bombs, it is noticeably less.”

Andriy Polukhin noted that Ukrainian defenders are trying to avoid being hit by Lancet drones through masking and using electronic warfare. He also talked about the use of drones.

"I think the issues with using FPV drones are the same for all units - communication, overcoming the enemy's electronic warfare barriers, and using different frequencies where their EW or drones operate. Intercepting their drones also requires monitoring the frequencies they use. Regarding drone usage, we can operate them both day and night. It’s too early to talk about parity, but we can proudly say that, at present, we are using more drones than the Russians," the military added.