Russia blames Iran, while Iran blames Ukraine: expert on PSYOP over situation in Syria

He said this on Espreso TV.

"Russia is currently trying to negotiate over its ports, as losing its ports in Syria means losing a significant logistical route and the presence of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean Sea. This is very important, considering that several African regimes directly use Russian private military companies (PMCs). For example, Tartus served as a transit point for delivering PMC personnel to African countries, where they carried out operations to protect regimes and certain Russian interests in Africa. Therefore, given the ongoing negotiations with Turkey, which has significant influence over these matters, Russia will likely adjust its public rhetoric," he noted.  

Andrii Kovalenko mentioned that Russian propagandists are accusing Iran of not supporting Bashar al-Assad's regime. Meanwhile, Iran accuses Ukraine of supporting the rebels.  

"Moreover, they are distancing themselves from admitting that this is a major defeat for Russia. They are now frequently blaming Iran for not putting in any effort to protect Bashar al-Assad's regime. In other words, Russian propaganda is trying to shift the blame directly onto Iran. On the other hand, Iran is conducting its own information operations, accusing Ukraine of supporting the so-called terrorists, claiming that Ukraine provided technologies, drones, and instructors. Iran makes many such claims. However, it is worth noting that since 2017, certain rebel groups have been using drone technologies in the Syrian war. Thus, these accusations from Iran seem far from verifiable," explained the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation.  

According to him, one of Russia's key information operations involves creating fear about transferring Russian troops from Syria to the war in Ukraine.  

"Russia also claims that they never abandon their own, highlighting that Bashar al-Assad was in Moscow and that Russia 'never leaves its allies.' They are trying to convey to certain segments of the Russian population the message that they 'don’t abandon their own.' At the same time, there are ongoing negotiations to fully withdraw Russian forces from Syrian territory. Furthermore, some are already attempting to scare Ukrainian society by suggesting that this contingent will inevitably fight in Ukraine. Based on information from the summer of 2024, this contingent consisted of 6,000-7,000 soldiers, including PMC members, forming what was called the 'African Corps,' which operated as a transit force between Africa and Syria. They performed tasks in both regions. This is not a large number, so it would not significantly affect the frontlines in Ukraine. Moreover, some of these forces will remain in Africa. Nevertheless, Russians are trying to exaggerate this narrative. Currently, this is one of the key information operations they are pushing into the Ukrainian information space," Andrii Kovalenko emphasized.

What is happening in Syria

A large-scale military operation by opposition forces against government troops is ongoing in Syria. The Syrian opposition launched an active offensive on the morning of November 27, and after two days of clashes, seized control of 56 settlements in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, advancing to the outskirts of Aleppo.

On Saturday, November 30, Russian aviation carried out airstrikes on the city of Aleppo for the first time since 2016, as Syrian rebels reached the city center. At the same time, Russia promised additional military assistance to the Assad regime.

That same day, Reuters, citing military sources, reported that Syrian rebels had captured the city of Maarat al-Numan in the Idlib province, effectively taking control of the entire province.

The Russian government decided to dismiss the commander of the Russian forces in Syria, Sergey Kisel, amid losses and growing panic among Russian troops. The situation for the Russian contingent in Syria is deteriorating as rebel forces advance in the south of the country, with urban battles reported in Hama, Homs, and Suwayda.

Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Russia and Iran bear responsibility for the degradation of the security situation in Syria.

On December 4, U.S. Armed Forces conducted a self-defense strike against weapon systems in eastern Syria. On December 5, Syrian rebels entered the key central city of Hama, forcing Assad regime forces to retreat. The following day, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry urged citizens to refrain from traveling to Syria.

As of December 6, Syrian rebels, led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced toward Homs, Syria’s third-largest city. Meanwhile, a U.S.-backed alliance led by Syrian Kurds captured Deir ez-Zor, the main city in eastern Syria and a key crossing point on the border with Iraq.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan offered to help Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in shaping Syria’s future, but his proposal was rejected.

On December 7, Syrian opposition forces announced they had taken control of the southern city of Daraa. Shortly afterward, rebels claimed to have entered the capital, Damascus, and declared the fall of the government of dictator Bashar al-Assad, who had allegedly fled the country.

Additionally, there is a high likelihood that President Bashar al-Assad died in a plane crash on December 8 while fleeing the country as rebels closed in on the capital. Russian officials claimed he chose to leave Syria voluntarily.

On Sunday, December 8, the Russian Federation began withdrawing its warships from the base in Tartus following the rebel capture of Damascus.

Later, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad al-Jalali stated that the country needs free elections to allow the people to choose their leadership.

Bild reported that Assad had planned to transfer power to pro-Turkish forces and relocate to Russia. Negotiations over this transfer reportedly took place in Doha, Qatar.

Russian media reported on the evening of December 8 that Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow, where Russia allegedly provided them asylum.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense claimed that Russia launched a disinformation campaign about Assad’s alleged plane crash to cover up its operation to rescue him.

Meanwhile, Israeli ground forces openly entered Syrian territory for the first time since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, crossing the demilitarized zone at the border.