Putin is not raising stakes, he is nervous

Putin's recent "peace" statement is just a repetition. Everything he said was approved during Russia's constitution changes. So, those saying Putin has now defined the "goals of the military operation" are wrong. The real goals were always different: to make Russia a global third power, which he won't achieve.

Many think the statement was due to the Peace Summit. This might be true, as it seems emotional, not rational - a reaction from someone deeply hurt after a big loss in their life.

Putin thought he could trick the West into negotiations. Two months ago, it looked like he had succeeded. But when the Americans finally decided to give us $61 billion after a lot of thinking, things didn't go as planned for Putin. Now, all he can do is talk. He's not raising rates, as some say - he is nervous.

Putin's recent statement is a cutting off of all possible avenues for retreat. He still hopes to lead negotiations at Yalta-2. And the current statement, like the constitutional amendments, is about cutting off the paths of retreat for himself and his entourage. 

Putin is now committed to war for war's sake or trying to "fight first and figure it out later." He's unable to get out or win this war, so he's resorting to stalling for time, unfortunately at the expense of human lives.

This situation significantly increases China's role as a negotiator. Beijing holds the primary sway over Russia. Whether we like it or not, it's nearly impossible to envision a peace deal formula without China's involvement.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.