“Closing airspace means nothing”: Defense Express on threat of Oreshnik missile strike on Ukraine

He spoke about this on Espreso TV.

“The fact that the Russians are 100% capable of launching the Oreshnik missile is not even discussed. They have this capability. However, it is not really correct to rely on NOTAMs, i.e. warnings about airspace closures, in this matter. Because the Kapustin Yar is an anti-aircraft missile range and missile tests or training of anti-aircraft missile units of the Russian army are constantly taking place there. That is why, as a rule, the sky over this training ground is often closed, and it is far from certain that when this happens, it will mean 100% that the Russians will launch the Oreshnik missile. Again, this does not exclude the possibility that they may close the sky before the launch, but in most cases this happens for training or some kind of anti-aircraft missile testing,” Katkov explained.

The expert noted that the Oreshnik missile launches are more aimed at threatening the West, or rather the European segment of NATO. He noted that the strike on Dnipro was a demonstration of a nuclear strike for European countries.

“The Russians do have the capability to launch Oreshnik missiles if they have the means to do so. As for the statements that their nuclear doctrine does not need to be changed because of the emergence of this missile. First, they have already made changes to their nuclear doctrine. Secondly, the Oreshnik is in any case a medium-range ballistic missile designed to deliver a nuclear strike. Putin's demagoguery that the Oreshnik is a conventional weapon is probably related to the Western reaction that followed the strike on Dnipro. Because it was a demonstration of a nuclear strike, not for Ukraine, but for cities like Berlin, London, and Paris. We need to understand that for the Russian Federation, medium-range missiles for the European theater of operations completely cover all the necessary capabilities. For the Russian Federation, missiles with a range of 3,500 kilometers are enough to reach as far as Gibraltar. For the Russians, intercontinental missiles are redundant to threaten the European segment of NATO,” he added.

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that on November 21, Russia tested a medium-range ballistic missile Oreshnik during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. He added that Moscow would ‘respond to the escalation’.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia had taken the second step towards escalation with the use of a new ballistic missile, calling the first the involvement of the DPRK military.
• The Security Service of Ukraine presented unique evidence of another Russian aggression by showing the world media the wreckage of the Oreshnik ballistic missile fired by Russia at Dnipro
• On November 28, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that decision-making centers in Kyiv could be targeted by a new Oreshnik missile, which Russia used to attack Dnipro on November 21.
• On December 6, Putin suggested that the Oreshnik could be deployed in Belarus.
• On December 10, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would not be improving its nuclear doctrine, but the Oreshnik system.
• On December 11, the Pentagon warned that in the coming days, the Russians could use the Oreshnik ballistic missile again to attack Ukraine.