Kremlin avoids blaming Kyiv for Crimea explosions - ISW

This was stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that several aviation munitions were detonated in the warehouses of the Saki air base due to incorrect fire protocol, rejecting reports that the explosions were caused by Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility.

"The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed," the Institute's report says.

The simultaneity of the explosions at two different objects probably excludes the official Russian version of an accidental fire, but does not exclude either sabotage or a long-range missile strike.

Experts say that Ukraine could have modified its Neptune missiles for use against land targets (as the Russians have done with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles), but there is currently no evidence to support this hypothesis.

Highlights

• Russian troops launched ground attacks southeast of Siversk and around Bakhmut

• The occupiers launched ground attacks north of Donetsk and southwest of Donetsk near the border of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

• Russia launched a surveillance satellite for Iran

• Western media reported that a Ukrainian counter-offensive was underway near Izyum, but the Ukrainian General Staff was completely silent about this area in the evening report

• Russian sources suggested that recently formed volunteer battalions are responsible for most of the Izyum direction

• Ukrainian officials said that Russian troops continued to fire artillery systems from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

• Russian officials continue to play an important role in preparing mock referendums in Russian-occupied regions, despite Kremlin claims that Russia does not hold referendums