Ukrainian military expert analyzes potential slowdown of Russian army’s offensive

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer with the Information resistance group, explained that while most expect the Russian offensive to slow down eventually due to the need to regroup and restore their forces, it’s a mistake to assess the Russian army using traditional military standards. 

"The Russian army is not a classical army with typical needs and requirements," he said.

Kovalenko stated that weather conditions like rain and winter might not slow down Russian operations as expected.

He explained that the Russian army loses 35,000 soldiers on average every month. However, Russia is able to conscript between 35,000 and 40,000 new soldiers, which means they almost fully replace their losses, and sometimes even add more troops.

"This allows the Russian army to keep losing 35,000 soldiers every month without hesitation, enabling them to continue advancing," Kovalenko said. 

He believes the offensive will only stop when Russia can no longer fully replace its monthly losses.

According to him, this could happen either due to internal disruptions in Russia’s mobilization efforts or if battlefield losses become too severe for mobilization to keep up.

Relying on internal Russian factors to disrupt the offensive is risky and “suicidal,” according to Kovalenko. Instead, he emphasized the need to focus on increasing Russian losses.

“How do we stop the Russian army’s offensive? We need to eliminate more Russian soldiers,” he concluded.

• Serviceman with the 68th Separate Ranger Brigade says that Russia lacks the forces and means to simultaneously conduct an offensive towards Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Selydove.