ISW says Putin trying to appeal to different groups by changing declared war goals in Ukraine
The Kremlin likely has not given up its maximalist objectives in Ukraine, despite Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitting for the first time that Moscow's current territorial goal is to fully seize four partially occupied Ukrainian regions
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On December 8, Peskov took the opportunity to further capitalize on the West's willingness to negotiate, expanding on Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments regarding the "accession of new Russian territories."
He stated that Russia's main war goals did not include the annexation of new territories that are not currently under Russian occupation, because "there is still a lot of work to be done" to fully occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
The Kremlin is still pursuing its goals of "demilitarization" and "denazification" in Ukraine, which confirm that Russia is still seeking regime change and eliminating Ukraine's ability to resist future Russian attacks or pressure, Peskov said.
The Institute emphasizes that, basically, the Kremlin's goals remain unchanged compared to those set after Russia's withdrawal from Kyiv. Peskov’s comments were not an inflection in Russian war aims or demands.
"The Kremlin’s deliberately inconsistent messaging is part of a persistent information operation intended to mislead the West into pushing Kyiv to negotiate and offer preemptive concessions," ISW experts believe.
ISW notes that the Kremlin's pro-Western messaging continues to anger the pro-war milblogger community, which increasingly accuses the Kremlin of deviating from its original war goals in Ukraine. The Kremlin's deliberately inconsistent rhetoric may have additional implications of trying to make Putin's vision of the war in Ukraine appeal to Russians.
Putin may deliberately distance himself in his rhetoric from the unrealistic demands of nationalists regarding Russia's military actions in Ukraine.
"The Kremlin has been increasingly attempting to reorient public opinion to favor its official messaging, and Putin’s December 8 statement may aim to diminish or marginalize the milbloggers to re-establish the perception that the Kremlin maintains a “moderate” and authoritative position," the report said.
Putin has previously publicly associated himself with nationalist military bloggers, but is still criticized for failing to fully ideologize Russia.
Experts add that "Putin may be attempting to get the milblogger community under control by attacking its credibility and encouraging self-censorship...While Putin may also be considering actually censoring the milbloggers, such measures remain unlikely given Putin’s ongoing efforts to retain relations with select milbloggers. Putin’s December 8 statement may also be an example of poor messaging discipline that failed to account for Russian milbloggers’ growing complaints about Moscow’s failures to address the perceived Ukrainian threat against Russia."
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