I see two basic scenarios - Piontkovsky on frontline developments

He said this on Espreso TV. 

“I see two basic scenarios. The first and main one is a huge aid package, a weapon of victory. What has already been delivered and is being delivered is a tank armada, aircraft, long-range missiles, including Storm Shadow. I think the main thing is not so much the tanks as the new missiles, which extend the range of HIMARS from 80 to 160 kilometers. It will be fully operational by early May. By this time, the training and methodological conditions will be in place. May and June are the decisive offensive of the Ukrainian army, most likely in the South: Melitopol, Berdiansk, the transformation of Crimea and all this into a huge encirclement,” Piontkovsky noted.

According to the political scientist, another scenario is also possible for the development of events at the front.

“Perhaps we are now listening with disbelief to the American intelligence reports that Putin is preparing a crazy offensive in the coming days to use the window of opportunity before the Ukrainian offensive. I think that the Russian offensive will not be successful. The Russians have nothing but a huge number of corpses. The corpses of imprisoned Russians are over, now there will be corpses of mobilized soldiers. This offensive will either end in nothing and prolong the situation of uncertainty until May, or it will end in a huge defeat for Russia. And this defeat will be the trigger for political changes inside the bunker. The same generals will take the position: 'We warned you, Vladimir Vladimirovich, and this is what it led to'” Piontkovsky emphasized.

• On February 9, it became known that Germany had handed over 2 Gepard systems, radars, generators and munitions to Ukraine this week.

• On February 11, it was reported that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, commenting on the results of the EU summit, expressed hope that 80 Leopard 2 tanks would be ready for delivery to Ukraine by the end of March.

• Discussions on the transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine are taking place in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.