I decided not to fear — and this is why 

Only you choose whether to fear or not to fear. 

I don’t. It’s not that I’m so brave. I just understand fear won’t change the probability of something happening to me. The Russian missile might hit, but my fear won’t change anything. 

So I chose to live without fear. I find it reasonable and rational. I live to the fullest, breaking Putin's plans to break us. I help people to stop fearing Russians and worrying sick. This is my personal redoubt.

Now you are being scared by the Russian offensive. Their main aim is to make you live in fear. Russia cannot destroy the AFU on the battlefield, so it aims at civilians. The real Russian information operation is not about uncovering Ukrainian Ministry of Defense corruption, it is all about the fear that Russian influencers and the media are trying to impose on you.

Fear must destroy your life. Detach you from relatives. Push you into loneliness, depression, apathy. Fearmongering is the main Russian goal: to make you more desperate, to break your will to resist. 

So here’s everything you need to know about the prospects of the Russian offensive:

 1. The number of the AFU personnel is now nearly three times larger than at the beginning of the invasion.

 2. Almost half of the primary invading Russian forces are liquidated or have suffered serious injuries. These were the most effective units of the Russian army.

 3. Artillery means the most in this war. At the beginning of the invasion, the Russian artillery superiority was 20:1. They destroyed Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk using fire wall tactics. 

But our allies have been focused on artillery supply, so hundreds of 155 mm howitzers and self-propelled guns have been sent since the beginning of the invasion.

As of now, the enemy has exhausted its reserves and logistical capabilities. Therefore, now there are fewer shells launched per day than in summer. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have significantly improved their artillery potential. Western weapons are so effective that our artillery capabilities have practically become identical to Russian. This is a fundamental difference with the situation at the beginning of the invasion.

 4. Air defense is much more effective. Russian operations such as helicopter landings in Hostomel and Vasylkiv are currently impossible. Russian assault aircraft have not dared to fly beyond the front line for a very long time, because it is immediately destroyed by our anti-aircraft systems. 

 5. Yes, the number of mobilized Russians is quite unpleasant. It is putting pressure on the AFU. But thankfully, modern war is not about sword fighting anymore. 13th century tactics won’t work today. A 155 mm NATO howitzer shell is not a sword. To kill 1 or 50 enemies at a time — it’s not a problem for it. 

 6. The Russian army suffered huge equipment losses that cannot be restored while the Ukrainian army is constantly restocked with a large number of quality Western equipment.

Listen to my advice and do not fear. There is nothing to be afraid of. The Armed Forces are strong and well equipped. If Putin decides to try and attack again, it will be another bunker strategist’s fatal mistake which will lead to exhaustion of the occupying forces limited potential.

Source

About the author: Serhii Marchenko, labor market expert, blogger.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.