How to prevent inertia after achieving victory, peace?  

The formula "Winning the war, losing the peace" has been widely used by over a dozen Ukrainian political scientists and journalists for several months. While the authorship is unclear, it is believed that David Williams was the first to paraphrase Ursula von der Leyen's statement from a speech at the conference on the restoration of Ukraine in Lugano. The phrase itself is rooted in the Truman Doctrine of 1947.

When considering the future, the concept of a "scenario of inertia" often emerges - the most probable outcome that occurs if no action is taken to pursue more favorable, desirable, or less likely scenarios that require active intervention.

I want Ukrainians to understand and comprehend this concept.

I have no doubt about our eventual victory. It won’t be easy. Despite Russia's strategic defeat, Ukraine has not yet emerged as the winner, and now Russia is actively working towards a mutual defeat to justify its own losses (for further information, see here). However, we now have a clear understanding of what needs to be done, not only at the tactical level (beating the enemy, supporting and helping the army), but also strategically (see the "Sustainable Peace Manifesto”). We will continue to do what is necessary to bring us closer to victory.

Now we look further. What might happen immediately after our victory?

1. We have emerged victorious. However, transitioning from war to peace is much more challenging than the reverse. The country has suffered tremendous losses, with a hundred thousand of our best people perishing. Our cities lie in ruins, and in certain regions, there is an ongoing humanitarian crisis. Our economy has also shrunk considerably, leading to a massive budget deficit. Our brave military personnel are returning home, exhausted and in dire need of medical care and housing. Additionally, a significant portion of the civilian population who worked tirelessly to support the war effort is also exhausted. The entire society has been deeply traumatized by the conflict.

2. The reforms in Ukraine have not been implemented as they were deemed "not a priority", and it appears that there was no genuine intention to carry them out. As a result, Ukraine has failed to meet its obligations, leading to insufficient funds for reconstruction from international partners and donors, as well as a delay in its accession to the European Union. While the Ukrainian political elite is insisting on receiving both funding and EU membership, their rhetoric (“EU integration first, reforms later”, “winners are not judged”, “you owe us because we saved you”) is not convincing to international partners. These partners have not forgotten the past deceptions and are also concerned about the potential emergence of new oligarchs who may embezzle the funds and then avoid accountability with their voters. Moreover, the EU has no interest in accommodating a large country that poses more problems than opportunities.

“Ukraine has failed to meet its obligations, leading to insufficient funds for reconstruction from international partners and donors, as well as a delay in its accession to the European Union. While the Ukrainian political elite is insisting on receiving both funding and EU membership, their rhetoric (“EU integration first, reforms later”, “winners are not judged”, “you owe us because we saved you”) is not convincing to international partners”

3. The restoration of the country has been put on hold due to the end of hostilities and martial law. This situation brings up the question of whether those who left will return or not. European governments are likely to encourage educated, hardworking individuals who can make a positive impact to stay there, while gently pushing out those who have not integrated into their new countries. This may leave millions of families with a difficult choice: women with children may decide to return home to their husbands, or men may choose to join their families. Ultimately, the decision will depend on the assessment of the situation at that time.

4. There is a significant lack of well-paying jobs in Ukraine due to the fact that private sector jobs require private investment, which is currently lacking, while the public sector is already overwhelmed. The conditions for starting one's own business are far less favorable than in neighboring countries, with a large number of businesses having already relocated to Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, essential services such as schools and hospitals are being restored at a minimal pace, while newly liberated territories and completely destroyed cities require significant funds just to begin the process of rebuilding. Despite inflation having been contained in 2022-2023 thanks to international aid, it is beginning to accelerate once again, as the absence of donor funding for recovery has left the state forced to print more money in order to rebuild at least critical infrastructure. 

5. The situation is worsening, but it has not led to protests in Ukraine. Typically, protests in the country are in response to injustices rather than deteriorating living conditions, which tend to result from sudden events rather than a slow decline. Furthermore, the active minority that would typically lead protests is exhausted and possibly divided due to artificial conflicts. Additionally, criticism of the government is labeled as undermining national unity by controlled media and social media contributors. It's worth noting that Russian propaganda is still present, even as the country faces military defeat and potential collapse.

“Typically, protests in Ukraine are in response to injustices rather than deteriorating living conditions, which tend to result from sudden events rather than a slow decline. Furthermore, the active minority that would typically lead protests is exhausted and possibly divided due to artificial conflicts”

6. A small group of people now holds control over all law enforcement agencies, including anti-corruption agencies, parliament, and the media. The oligarchs, who have historically supported political pluralism for their own interests and at times played a positive role, have exited the scene due to the war. The decentralization reform, which had been progressing, is now being rolled back, and local leaders are confronted with a difficult choice: pledge their allegiance to the central government or risk repression, limitations on their abilities, and damage to their reputations. They are also likely to lack the resources necessary for rebuilding.

7. The country's political elite now has complete control over the country, but does not seem to comprehend that relinquishing some of this control is necessary to rebuild and restore it. The dialogue between Ukrainian officials and their international partners appears to be one-sided, like a conversation between an autopilot and an answering machine. At best, the country's way towards European integration is progressing slowly according to the "Kindergarten" scenario, but in reality, it should be called "Orban.ua" due to the similarities with Hungary. In Hungary, there is a formal democracy, a free market, and the rule of law, but one clan controls politics, the economy, and the media, which opposes the country to Europe. The clan also distributes money to grateful supporters in exchange for constant support, making it unlikely that such a country will be welcomed into the EU. In the worst-case scenario, the situation could mirror Russia's "Fight the monster and become a monster" strategy, leading to Putin's posthumous victory.

“The dialogue between Ukrainian officials and their international partners appears to be one-sided, like a conversation between an autopilot and an answering machine. At best, the country's way towards European integration is progressing slowly according to the "Kindergarten" scenario, but in reality, it should be called "Orban.ua" due to the similarities with Hungary. In Hungary, there is a formal democracy, a free market, and the rule of law, but one clan controls politics, the economy, and the media, which opposes the country to Europe”

8. Against this backdrop, the significant reforms of previous years appear to be winding down, with those responsible for implementing them facing potential imprisonment - a situation that has already become evident in some cases in 2023. There are individuals with close ties to the Russian special services operating behind the scenes of this development, and their identities are well-known. The corruption network appears to be operating at the highest levels, with anti-corruption bodies under control, supervisory boards destroyed, and public organizations either bought (sometimes not for money, but rather for access to the media and positions of power) or marginalized. Furthermore, bloggers who support the regime explain to the public in plain language why these actions are necessary.

9. The most politically dangerous groups in the country are the popular military and volunteer leaders. However, these individuals are often removed from their positions due to criminal proceedings for exceeding their powers, violating rules, and making decisions that cause material damage to the state. It is widely understood how officers and generals often exceeded their powers during the war, and how volunteers may have violated rules as well. As a result, society has become exhausted, with a huge unsatisfied demand for justice and a desire for revenge on those deemed responsible for our losses. Protests are marginalized, and calls for the supremacy of justice in conditions of low legal culture are not heard. 

10. The lack of financial support and EU membership from international partners has led to the belief among Ukrainians that the West has abandoned, drained, and deceived them. This straightforward thesis can account for the country's widespread poverty, economic ruin, high unemployment rates, and rising prices. Over the last 25 years, Ukrainians have harbored a deep resentment towards the West, and the nation has become a group of offended victors who struggle to learn from past mistakes. While Western intellectuals shake their heads at Ukraine's behavior, labeling the country as one that never misses a chance to squander opportunities, China has stepped in with attractive loan offers. As one generation gives way to the next, only time will tell what the future holds for Ukraine.

“The West has abandoned, drained, and deceived Ukraine. This straightforward thesis can account for the country's widespread poverty, economic ruin, high unemployment rates, and rising prices. Over the last 25 years, Ukrainians have harbored a deep resentment towards the West, and the nation has become a group of offended victors”

The peculiarity of scenarios of inertia (let me remind you, this is the most likely outcome if no action is taken) is that they are formed by trends that are easily identifiable. On the other hand, alternative scenarios arise from active actions by subjects, unnoticed or new trends, and "black swans" (unexpected events), while the scenario of inertia is always clearly visible. Due to the slow pace of change, sudden events are rare. Therefore, everything that has occurred over the decades was predicted by those who observed the trends. As the saying goes, "The mills of God grind slowly."

Hence, if you disagree with any of the aforementioned points, it is recommended that you carefully review each point and identify the specific ones that you take issue with. Consider whether your objections challenge the overall trends that are being described.  And think about what exactly you can do to prevent this.

‘An inertial scenario is generally not favored, it causes disgust and fear. Its purpose is to prompt individuals to take action and avoid it”

An inertial scenario is generally not favored, it causes disgust and fear. Its purpose is to prompt individuals to take action and avoid it. Achieving positive outcomes and desired scenarios requires persistent and coordinated efforts from an active minority – those social forces capable of envisioning a better future and taking actions towards its realization. The active minority always directs the development path, while the passive majority determines its speed. However, the active minority can become exhausted, scattered, divided, suppressed, or marginalized, leaving the powerful trends of today to shape the future and manifesting an inertial scenario.

It would be fitting to end this text with a call for collaborative efforts and a proposed action plan to shift from the path of inertia to the desired outcome. However, here’s a full stop, as we have not yet progressed beyond the stage of awareness. We have not reached the point where comprehending the situation leads to decisive action. Remember Colonel Boyd's cycle of "observe - evaluate - decide - act"? To avoid the impending crisis, we must first acknowledge and examine it. So, I invite you to take a closer look.

Source

About the author. Valerii Pekar, National University “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” professor

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.